Football · Scotland League Cup · 21/07, 20:45
Prediction: Kilmarnock vs Hamilton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.16Total
Kilmarnock2.37
Hamilton0.79
1X2
Kilmarnock
Draw
Hamilton
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Kilmarnock
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Hamilton
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kilmarnock
6–0
Hamilton
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kilmarnock 1590 · Hamilton 1587
| Kilmarnock | Draw | Hamilton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Market | 73% | 15% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Kilmarnock: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kilmarnock | Hamilton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.7 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.6 | 1.8 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kilmarnock 6–0–0 Hamilton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/22 Scotland Championship | Kilmarnock | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Hamilton |
| 26/12/21 Scotland Championship | Hamilton | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Kilmarnock |
| 30/11/21 Scotland League Challenge Cup | Hamilton | 2-3 HT 0-0 | Kilmarnock |
| 23/10/21 Scotland Championship | Kilmarnock | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Hamilton |
| 21/08/21 Scotland Championship | Hamilton | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Kilmarnock |
| 16/05/21 Scotland Premiership | Hamilton | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Kilmarnock |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group H
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | Hamilton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| 3 | Raith | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 5 |
| 4 | Peterhead | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Elgin | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kilmarnock
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Elgin Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/07 | Raith Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Linfield UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/07 | Glentoran UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
Hamilton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Raith Scotland League Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Peterhead Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Haverfordwest County UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Raith UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 15/05 | Clyde Scotland League One Play-Offs |
2-2 | 4-3 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Clyde Scotland League One Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Forfar Scotland League One Play-Offs |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Forfar Scotland League One Play-Offs |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Inverness CT Scotland League One |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kilmarnock vs Hamilton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kilmarnock win (73%). Probabilities: Kilmarnock 73%, draw 17%, Hamilton 11%.
How many goals are expected in Kilmarnock vs Hamilton?
The model expects 3.16 goals (Kilmarnock 2.37 · Hamilton 0.79), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Hamilton?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.