Prediction: East Kilbride vs Dumbarton
| East Kilbride | Draw | Dumbarton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 78% | 16% | 6% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours East Kilbride (rating 1564 vs 1418).
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| East Kilbride | Dumbarton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.7 | 2.1 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 1.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · East Kilbride 2–2–2 Dumbarton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 0-1 HT 0-1 | East Kilbride |
| 21/02/26 Scotland League Two | East Kilbride | 3-1 HT 3-0 | Dumbarton |
| 13/12/25 Scotland League Two | Dumbarton | 2-0 HT 2-0 | East Kilbride |
| 20/09/25 Scotland League Two | East Kilbride | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Dumbarton |
| 13/07/24 Scotland League Cup | Dumbarton | 1-1 HT 1-1 | East Kilbride |
| 30/06/18 Club Friendly List | East Kilbride | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Dumbarton |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Mirren | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | East Kilbride | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Cove Rangers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Dunfermline | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Dumbarton | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | East Kilbride | Dumbarton |
|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline | 3-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Clyde | 5-0 W | 0-2 L |
| FC Edinburgh | 4-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Forfar | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Stirling | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: East Kilbride (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
East Kilbride
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Cove Rangers Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Dunfermline Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Kelty Hearts UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Dumbarton Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/03 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 21/03 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
2-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 7 | W |
Dumbarton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Dunfermline Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | St Mirren Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 30/06 | Ayr UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Linlithgow Rose Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-4 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | East Kilbride Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Stranraer Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 28/03 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in East Kilbride vs Dumbarton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a East Kilbride win (78%). Probabilities: East Kilbride 78%, draw 16%, Dumbarton 6%.
How many goals are expected in East Kilbride vs Dumbarton?
The model expects 3.33 goals (East Kilbride 2.65 · Dumbarton 0.69), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in East Kilbride vs Dumbarton?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.