Prediction: Hamilton vs Elgin
| Hamilton | Draw | Elgin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 82% | 11% | 6% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamilton (rating 1575 vs 1468).
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hamilton | Elgin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 33/44/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.3 | 2.4 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group H
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kilmarnock | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Raith | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| 3 | Hamilton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 4 | Peterhead | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Elgin | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hamilton | Elgin |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Raith | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Peterhead | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Hamilton (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamilton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Kilmarnock Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Raith Scotland League Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Peterhead Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Haverfordwest County UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Raith UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 15/05 | Clyde Scotland League One Play-Offs |
2-2 | 4-3 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Clyde Scotland League One Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Forfar Scotland League One Play-Offs |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Forfar Scotland League One Play-Offs |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Inverness CT Scotland League One |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
Elgin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Kilmarnock Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 14/07 | Peterhead Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Raith Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | Johnstone Burgh Club Friendly List |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 30/06 | Nairn County UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Airdrieonians UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Stranraer Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamilton vs Elgin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hamilton win (81%). Probabilities: Hamilton 81%, draw 13%, Elgin 7%.
How many goals are expected in Hamilton vs Elgin?
The model expects 3.58 goals (Hamilton 2.79 · Elgin 0.79), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hamilton vs Elgin?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.