Football · Scotland League Cup · 14/07, 20:45
Prediction: Brechin vs Livingston
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
Brechin0.61
Livingston2.61
1X2
Brechin
Draw
Livingston
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Brechin
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Livingston
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brechin
0–1–5
Livingston
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brechin 1528 · Livingston 1522
| Brechin | Draw | Livingston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 6% | 15% | 79% |
| Market | 7% | 10% | 83% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Livingston: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brechin | Livingston | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.1 | 3 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brechin 0–1–5 Livingston
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/23 Scotland League Cup | Brechin | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Livingston |
| 10/07/21 Scotland League Cup | Brechin | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Livingston |
| 21/04/18 Scotland Championship | Livingston | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Brechin |
| 13/01/18 Scotland Championship | Brechin | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Livingston |
| 28/10/17 Scotland Championship | Livingston | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Brechin |
| 12/08/17 Scotland Championship | Brechin | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Livingston |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group E
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Livingston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Forfar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5 | Brechin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brechin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Partick Scotland League Cup |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 08/07 | Dundee Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/07 | Arbroath Club Friendly List |
0-3 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | St Andrews Utd Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Nairn County Scotland Highland League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/03 | Formartine United Scotland Highland League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 14/03 | Inverurie Loco Works Scotland Highland League |
0-0 | 4-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 11/03 | Clachnacuddin Scotland Highland League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 04/03 | Deveronvale Scotland Highland League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 21/02 | Brora Rangers FC Scotland Highland League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
Livingston
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Hearts UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Alloa UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Dundee UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
1-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 12/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 05/04 | Hearts Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brechin vs Livingston?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Livingston win (81%). Probabilities: Brechin 6%, draw 12%, Livingston 81%.
How many goals are expected in Brechin vs Livingston?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Brechin 0.61 · Livingston 2.61), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Brechin vs Livingston?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.