Football · Scotland League Cup · 14/07, 20:45
Prediction: Kilmarnock vs Raith
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.42Total
Kilmarnock1.96
Raith1.46
1X2
Kilmarnock
Draw
Raith
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Kilmarnock
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Raith
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kilmarnock
1–2–3
Raith
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kilmarnock 1582 · Raith 1556
| Kilmarnock | Draw | Raith | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Raith: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kilmarnock | Raith | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1 | 2.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 2.7 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kilmarnock 1–2–3 Raith
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/23 Scotland League Cup | Kilmarnock | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Raith |
| 29/04/22 Scotland Championship | Raith | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Kilmarnock |
| 02/03/22 Scotland League Challenge Cup | Kilmarnock | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Raith |
| 19/02/22 Scotland Championship | Kilmarnock | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Raith |
| 11/12/21 Scotland Championship | Raith | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Kilmarnock |
| 02/10/21 Scotland Championship | Kilmarnock | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Raith |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group H
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raith | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Kilmarnock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Peterhead | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5 | Elgin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kilmarnock
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Linfield UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/07 | Glentoran UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 21/03 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Raith
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Elgin Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 30/06 | FC Edinburgh UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Hamilton UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 01/05 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 14/04 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Morton Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Inverness CT Scotland League Challenge Cup |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/03 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kilmarnock vs Raith?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kilmarnock win (48%). Probabilities: Kilmarnock 48%, draw 25%, Raith 27%.
How many goals are expected in Kilmarnock vs Raith?
The model expects 3.42 goals (Kilmarnock 1.96 · Raith 1.46), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Raith?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.