Football · Scotland League Cup · 18/07, 16:00
Prediction: Elgin vs Kilmarnock
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.57Total
Elgin0.79
Kilmarnock2.79
1X2
Elgin
Draw
Kilmarnock
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Elgin
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Kilmarnock
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elgin 1470 · Kilmarnock 1572
| Elgin | Draw | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 7% | 15% | 78% |
| Market | 8% | 12% | 81% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kilmarnock (rating 1470 vs 1572).
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Elgin | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/33/33% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 3.9 | 2.2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group H
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raith | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 2 | Peterhead | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Kilmarnock | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| 5 | Elgin | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elgin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Peterhead Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Raith Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | Johnstone Burgh Club Friendly List |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 30/06 | Nairn County UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Airdrieonians UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Stranraer Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Kilmarnock
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Raith Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Linfield UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/07 | Glentoran UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elgin vs Kilmarnock?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Kilmarnock win (80%). Probabilities: Elgin 7%, draw 13%, Kilmarnock 80%.
How many goals are expected in Elgin vs Kilmarnock?
The model expects 3.57 goals (Elgin 0.79 · Kilmarnock 2.79), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Elgin vs Kilmarnock?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.