Football · Scotland League Cup · 18/07, 20:00
Prediction: Dundee Utd vs Arbroath
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Dundee Utd1.83
Arbroath0.93
1X2
Dundee Utd
Draw
Arbroath
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Dundee Utd
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Arbroath
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dundee Utd
5–1–0
Arbroath
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dundee Utd 1500 · Arbroath 1497
| Dundee Utd | Draw | Arbroath | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Dundee Utd: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dundee Utd | Arbroath | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.7 | 1.9 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundee Utd 5–1–0 Arbroath
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/25 UK Friendlies | Arbroath | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Dundee Utd |
| 09/03/24 Scotland Championship | Dundee Utd | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Arbroath |
| 02/01/24 Scotland Championship | Arbroath | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Dundee Utd |
| 27/10/23 Scotland Championship | Dundee Utd | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Arbroath |
| 04/08/23 Scotland Championship | Arbroath | 0-4 HT 0-4 | Dundee Utd |
| 17/07/21 Scotland League Cup | Dundee Utd | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Arbroath |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stirling | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Arbroath | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Montrose | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Dundee Utd | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Spartans | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dundee Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Montrose Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | Stirling Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 12/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 04/04 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 22/03 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Arbroath
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Spartans Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Brechin Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | St Mirren UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 08/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 05/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Raith Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dundee Utd vs Arbroath?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dundee Utd win (58%). Probabilities: Dundee Utd 58%, draw 24%, Arbroath 18%.
How many goals are expected in Dundee Utd vs Arbroath?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Dundee Utd 1.83 · Arbroath 0.93), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Dundee Utd vs Arbroath?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.