Football · Scotland League Cup · 25/07, 16:00

Prediction: Forfar vs Brechin

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Forfar1.69
Brechin1.35
1X2
45% 25% 30%
Forfar Draw Brechin
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Forfar 0-3-7 (W-D-L)
DLLDLDLLLL
Brechin 4-2-4 (W-D-L)
WWDWWLDLLL
Head-to-head
Forfar 2–3–1 Brechin (6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forfar 1413 · Brechin 1478
ForfarDrawBrechin
Our model45%26%30%
Market45%25%30%
Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brechin (rating 1413 vs 1478).
  • H2H favours Forfar: 2-3-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

ForfarBrechin
Goals for / against (FT)0.6 / 31.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)0.1 / 1.40.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)0/44/56%20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)1 / 2.13 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)1.1 / 03.8 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Forfar 231 Brechin

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DateHomeScoreAway
13/07/19
Scotland League Cup
Forfar3-0
HT 2-0
Brechin
09/03/19
Scotland League One
Brechin2-2
HT 2-1
Forfar
29/12/18
Scotland League One
Forfar2-0
HT 1-0
Brechin
10/11/18
Scotland League One
Brechin4-0
HT 3-0
Forfar
22/09/18
Scotland League One
Forfar1-1
HT 0-1
Brechin
18/07/17
Scotland League Cup
Brechin1-1
HT 0-0
Forfar

Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group E

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Partick 4220 19109
2 Stenhousemuir 3210 1168
3 Livingston 3210 1347
4 Brechin 3003 1100
5 Forfar 3003 0140

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentForfarBrechin
Livingston 0-8 L 0-2 L
Partick 0-4 L 0-6 L
Stenhousemuir 0-2 L 1-2 L
Record vs common 0 W 0 D 3 L 0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Brechin (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forfar

DLLDLDLLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
21/07 Livingston
Scotland League Cup
0-4 0-8 11 L
14/07 Partick
Scotland League Cup
0-3 0-4 02 L
11/07 Stenhousemuir
Scotland League Cup
0-0 0-2 00 L
07/07 Peterhead
Club Friendly List
0-1 0-3 L
04/07 Banks O'Dee
Club Friendly List
2-2 D
30/06 St Johnstone
UK Friendlies
0-3 0-4 30 L
27/06 Montrose
UK Friendlies
0-0 1-1 00 D
09/05 Hamilton
Scotland League One Play-Offs
0-0 1-2 33 L
05/05 Hamilton
Scotland League One Play-Offs
0-1 1-3 21 L
02/05 Annan Athletic
Scotland League Two
1-1 1-1 82 D

Brechin

WWDWWLDLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
18/07 Stenhousemuir
Scotland League Cup
1-2 1-2 L
14/07 Livingston
Scotland League Cup
0-2 0-2 14 L
11/07 Partick
Scotland League Cup
0-3 0-6 41 L
08/07 Dundee
Club Friendly List
1-1 1-1 D
04/07 Arbroath
Club Friendly List
0-3 1-4 L
27/06 St Andrews Utd
Club Friendly List
2-0 2-1 W
04/04 Nairn County
Scotland Highland League
1-0 3-0 85 W
25/03 Formartine United
Scotland Highland League
0-0 0-0 37 D
14/03 Inverurie Loco Works
Scotland Highland League
0-0 4-1 103 W
11/03 Clachnacuddin
Scotland Highland League
0-0 1-0 123 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forfar vs Brechin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Forfar win (45%). Probabilities: Forfar 45%, draw 25%, Brechin 30%.

How many goals are expected in Forfar vs Brechin?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Forfar 1.69 · Brechin 1.35), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Forfar vs Brechin?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.