Football · Scotland League Cup · 14/07, 20:45
Prediction: East Fife vs Morton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
East Fife1.26
Morton1.41
1X2
East Fife
Draw
Morton
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
East Fife
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Morton
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
East Fife
2–1–0
Morton
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · East Fife 1488 · Morton 1458
| East Fife | Draw | Morton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | 34% | 25% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours East Fife: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| East Fife | Morton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.9 | 1.9 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · East Fife 2–1–0 Morton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/24 Scotland League Cup | East Fife | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Morton |
| 03/04/21 Scotland FA Cup | East Fife | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Morton |
| 19/01/19 Scotland FA Cup | East Fife | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Morton |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group F
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linlithgow Rose | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Inverness CT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | East Fife | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 4 | St Johnstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Morton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
East Fife
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Inverness CT Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 02/05 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 25/04 | Inverness CT Scotland League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Alloa Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Montrose Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 28/03 | Stenhousemuir Scotland League One |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 21/03 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 14/03 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 07/03 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
Morton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Linlithgow Rose Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | Stranraer UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 01/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 25/04 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Raith Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/03 | Partick Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in East Fife vs Morton?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Morton win (40%). Probabilities: East Fife 33%, draw 26%, Morton 40%.
How many goals are expected in East Fife vs Morton?
The model expects 2.67 goals (East Fife 1.26 · Morton 1.41), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in East Fife vs Morton?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.