Football · Scotland League Cup · 14/07, 20:45
Prediction: FC Edinburgh vs Alloa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
FC Edinburgh1.14
Alloa1.87
1X2
FC Edinburgh
Draw
Alloa
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC Edinburgh
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Alloa
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Edinburgh
1–1–4
Alloa
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Edinburgh 1425 · Alloa 1490
| FC Edinburgh | Draw | Alloa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Market | 22% | 24% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alloa (rating 1425 vs 1490).
- H2H favours Alloa: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Edinburgh | Alloa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.6 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 2.4 | 1.7 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Edinburgh 1–1–4 Alloa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/25 Scotland League Challenge Cup | FC Edinburgh | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Alloa |
| 16/03/24 Scotland League One | FC Edinburgh | 2-5 HT 2-1 | Alloa |
| 06/01/24 Scotland League One | Alloa | 3-1 HT 1-0 | FC Edinburgh |
| 18/11/23 Scotland League One | FC Edinburgh | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Alloa |
| 30/09/23 Scotland League One | Alloa | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Edinburgh |
| 11/03/23 Scotland League One | FC Edinburgh | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Alloa |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group G
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falkirk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Ayr | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Alloa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Stranraer | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 5 | FC Edinburgh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Edinburgh
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Falkirk Scotland League Cup |
0-4 | 0-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/06 | Raith UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Gala Fairydean Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Two Play-Offs |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Two Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Dumbarton Scotland League Two |
4-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | East Kilbride Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
Alloa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Livingston UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 13/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
1-1 | 1-4 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Stenhousemuir Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | East Fife Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Edinburgh vs Alloa?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Alloa win (54%). Probabilities: FC Edinburgh 22%, draw 24%, Alloa 54%.
How many goals are expected in FC Edinburgh vs Alloa?
The model expects 3 goals (FC Edinburgh 1.14 · Alloa 1.87), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Edinburgh vs Alloa?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.