Football · Scotland League Cup · 18/07, 16:00
Prediction: Alloa vs Stranraer
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Alloa1.69
Stranraer0.8
1X2
Alloa
Draw
Stranraer
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Alloa
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Stranraer
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alloa
2–4
Stranraer
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alloa 1461 · Stranraer 1505
| Alloa | Draw | Stranraer | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 26% | 16% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stranraer (rating 1461 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Stranraer: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alloa | Stranraer | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.5 | 3 / 7.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alloa 2–0–4 Stranraer
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/25 Scotland League Challenge Cup | Stranraer | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Alloa |
| 22/09/20 UK Friendlies | Alloa | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Stranraer |
| 07/04/18 Scotland League One | Alloa | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Stranraer |
| 24/02/18 Scotland League One | Stranraer | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Alloa |
| 23/12/17 Scotland League One | Alloa | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Stranraer |
| 14/10/17 Scotland League One | Stranraer | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Alloa |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group G
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ayr | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Falkirk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | FC Edinburgh | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 4 | Stranraer | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 5 | Alloa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alloa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/06 | Livingston UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 13/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
1-1 | 1-4 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Stenhousemuir Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | East Fife Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
Stranraer
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Ayr Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 2-3 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 04/07 | Morton UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 27/06 | Dundela Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Larne FC UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Elgin Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 11/04 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Dumbarton Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 28/03 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alloa vs Stranraer?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alloa win (59%). Probabilities: Alloa 59%, draw 24%, Stranraer 18%.
How many goals are expected in Alloa vs Stranraer?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Alloa 1.69 · Stranraer 0.8), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Alloa vs Stranraer?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.