Football · Scotland League Cup · 18/07, 16:00
Prediction: Hamilton vs Raith
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.45Total
Hamilton1.39
Raith2.06
1X2
Hamilton
Draw
Raith
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hamilton
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Raith
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hamilton
0–2–4
Raith
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hamilton 1580 · Raith 1561
| Hamilton | Draw | Raith | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Market | 23% | 27% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Raith: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hamilton | Raith | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.1 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 2.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamilton 0–2–4 Raith
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 UK Friendlies | Raith | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Hamilton |
| 09/12/25 Scotland League Challenge Cup | Raith | 5-2 HT 1-1 | Hamilton |
| 29/03/25 Scotland Championship | Hamilton | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Raith |
| 22/02/25 Scotland Championship | Raith | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Hamilton |
| 28/01/25 Scotland Championship | Hamilton | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Raith |
| 21/09/24 Scotland Championship | Raith | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Hamilton |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group H
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raith | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 2 | Peterhead | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Kilmarnock | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| 5 | Elgin | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamilton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Peterhead Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Haverfordwest County UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Raith UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 15/05 | Clyde Scotland League One Play-Offs |
2-2 | 4-3 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Clyde Scotland League One Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Forfar Scotland League One Play-Offs |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Forfar Scotland League One Play-Offs |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Inverness CT Scotland League One |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Montrose Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 14 | 1 | W |
Raith
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Kilmarnock Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Elgin Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 30/06 | FC Edinburgh UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Hamilton UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 01/05 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 14/04 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Morton Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Inverness CT Scotland League Challenge Cup |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamilton vs Raith?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Raith win (51%). Probabilities: Hamilton 24%, draw 25%, Raith 51%.
How many goals are expected in Hamilton vs Raith?
The model expects 3.45 goals (Hamilton 1.39 · Raith 2.06), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hamilton vs Raith?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.