Prediction: Stenhousemuir vs Forfar
Expected goals: 2.97 (Stenhousemuir 2.08 · Forfar 0.89). The model gives 65% home, 20% draw, 15% away. Under 3.25 goals (53%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 2-0.
Recent form leaves Stenhousemuir with 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Forfar has piled up 3-3-4 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Stenhousemuir and 0 for Forfar, with 4 draws.
| Stenhousemuir | Draw | Forfar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Market | 65% | 19% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stenhousemuir (rating 1535 vs 1471).
- H2H favours Stenhousemuir: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stenhousemuir | Forfar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 22/44/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.6 | 1.4 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stenhousemuir 2–4–0 Forfar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/24 Scotland League Two | Forfar | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Stenhousemuir |
| 06/01/24 Scotland League Two | Stenhousemuir | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Forfar |
| 04/11/23 Scotland League Two | Forfar | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Stenhousemuir |
| 05/08/23 Scotland League Two | Stenhousemuir | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Forfar |
| 25/03/23 Scotland League Two | Stenhousemuir | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Forfar |
| 11/02/23 Scotland League Two | Forfar | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Stenhousemuir |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group E
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brechin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Forfar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Livingston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Partick | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stenhousemuir | Forfar |
|---|---|---|
| Montrose | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Hamilton | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Stenhousemuir (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stenhousemuir
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | Alloa Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 11 | L |
| 13/05 | Alloa Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Queen of South Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 05/05 | Queen of South Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Montrose Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Alloa Scotland League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Inverness CT Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 04/04 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/03 | East Fife Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 0 | D |
Forfar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Peterhead Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Banks O'Dee Club Friendly List |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 30/06 | St Johnstone UK Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Montrose UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 09/05 | Hamilton Scotland League One Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 05/05 | Hamilton Scotland League One Play-Offs |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 18/04 | Stranraer Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 11/04 | East Kilbride Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stenhousemuir vs Forfar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stenhousemuir win (65%). Probabilities: Stenhousemuir 65%, draw 20%, Forfar 15%.
How many goals are expected in Stenhousemuir vs Forfar?
The model expects 2.97 goals (Stenhousemuir 2.08 · Forfar 0.89), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Stenhousemuir vs Forfar?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.