Prediction: Queen of South vs Kelty Hearts
Expected goals: 3.08 (Queen of South 1.99 · Kelty Hearts 1.08). The model gives 57% home, 24% draw, 19% away. Under 3 goals (53%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Queen of South with 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Kelty Hearts has piled up 3-1-6 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Queen of South and 1 for Kelty Hearts, with 2 draws.
| Queen of South | Draw | Kelty Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Queen of South (rating 1514 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Queen of South: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Queen of South | Kelty Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.1 | 2.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Queen of South 3–2–1 Kelty Hearts
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Scotland League One | Kelty Hearts | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Queen of South |
| 10/01/26 Scotland League One | Queen of South | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Kelty Hearts |
| 15/11/25 Scotland League One | Kelty Hearts | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Queen of South |
| 30/08/25 Scotland League One | Queen of South | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Kelty Hearts |
| 19/04/25 Scotland League One | Kelty Hearts | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Queen of South |
| 01/03/25 Scotland League One | Queen of South | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Kelty Hearts |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brora Rangers FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kelty Hearts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Queen of South | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Queen's Park | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Queen of South | Kelty Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Montrose | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Peterhead | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Cove Rangers | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Inverness CT | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Queen of South (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Queen of South
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Crusaders UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 27/06 | Connah's Quay UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 05/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Alloa Scotland League One |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Montrose Scotland League One |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 11/04 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 27/03 | Inverness CT Scotland League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
Kelty Hearts
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Dunfermline UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | East Kilbride UK Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Gala Fairydean Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Inverness CT Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Montrose Scotland League One |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 04/04 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 28/03 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | Stenhousemuir Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Queen of South vs Kelty Hearts?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Queen of South win (57%). Probabilities: Queen of South 57%, draw 24%, Kelty Hearts 19%.
How many goals are expected in Queen of South vs Kelty Hearts?
The model expects 3.08 goals (Queen of South 1.99 · Kelty Hearts 1.08), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Queen of South vs Kelty Hearts?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.