Prediction: Dumbarton vs St Mirren
Expected goals: 3.3 (Dumbarton 0.71 · St Mirren 2.59). The model gives 8% home, 15% draw, 77% away. Under 3.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 0-2.
Recent form leaves Dumbarton with 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses over 10 games; St Mirren has piled up 3-3-4 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Dumbarton won 1 and St Mirren 5.
| Dumbarton | Draw | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 7% | 16% | 77% |
| Market | 8% | 14% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Mirren (rating 1451 vs 1513).
- H2H favours St Mirren: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dumbarton | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.1 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5 | 3 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dumbarton 1–0–5 St Mirren
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/25 UK Friendlies | Dumbarton | 0-4 HT 0-1 | St Mirren |
| 04/07/23 Club Friendly List | Dumbarton | 0-3 HT 0-3 | St Mirren |
| 28/07/18 Scotland League Cup | St Mirren | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Dumbarton |
| 27/03/18 Scotland Championship | St Mirren | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Dumbarton |
| 13/01/18 Scotland Championship | Dumbarton | 0-2 HT 0-0 | St Mirren |
| 02/12/17 Scotland Championship | St Mirren | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Dumbarton |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cove Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dumbarton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dunfermline | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | East Kilbride | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | St Mirren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dumbarton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Ayr UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Linlithgow Rose Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-4 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | East Kilbride Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Stranraer Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 28/03 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 21/03 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 14/03 | Elgin Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
St Mirren
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Arbroath UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/05 | Partick Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Partick Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 12/05 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Celtic Scotland FA Cup |
0-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 11/04 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dumbarton vs St Mirren?
According to our model, the most likely result is an St Mirren win (77%). Probabilities: Dumbarton 8%, draw 15%, St Mirren 77%.
How many goals are expected in Dumbarton vs St Mirren?
The model expects 3.3 goals (Dumbarton 0.71 · St Mirren 2.59), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Dumbarton vs St Mirren?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.