Prediction: Stranraer vs Ayr
Expected goals: 2.73 (Stranraer 0.77 · Ayr 1.96). The model gives 14% home, 21% draw, 65% away. Under 3.25 goals (59%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 0-2.
Over its last 10 matches, Stranraer sits at 4-4-2 (W-D-L), while Ayr arrives on a 4-1-5 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for Stranraer and 3 for Ayr, with 2 draws.
| Stranraer | Draw | Ayr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 23% | 64% |
| Market | 14% | 20% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Ayr: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stranraer | Ayr | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 22/44/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 8.1 | 2.6 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stranraer 1–2–3 Ayr
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/26 Scotland League Challenge Cup | Ayr | 4-1 HT 3-1 | Stranraer |
| 08/07/23 Club Friendly List | Ayr | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Stranraer |
| 14/11/20 Scotland League Cup | Ayr | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Stranraer |
| 27/07/19 Scotland League Cup | Ayr | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Stranraer |
| 14/04/18 Scotland League One | Ayr | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Stranraer |
| 02/01/18 Scotland League One | Stranraer | 1-5 HT 0-2 | Ayr |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group G
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alloa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ayr | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Edinburgh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stranraer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stranraer
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Morton UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 27/06 | Dundela Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Larne FC UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Elgin Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 11/04 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Dumbarton Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 28/03 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 24/03 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
Ayr
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Airdrieonians UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Dumbarton UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Glenafton Athletic FC Club Friendly List |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/05 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 07/04 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 27/03 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stranraer vs Ayr?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ayr win (65%). Probabilities: Stranraer 14%, draw 21%, Ayr 65%.
How many goals are expected in Stranraer vs Ayr?
The model expects 2.73 goals (Stranraer 0.77 · Ayr 1.96), with a 59% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Stranraer vs Ayr?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.