Prediction: Raith vs Elgin
Expected goals: 3.74 (Raith 2.87 · Elgin 0.87). The model gives 81% home, 13% draw, 6% away. Under 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 2-0.
On recent form, Raith is 6-1-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Elgin 4-3-3 over its own. In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Raith won 3 and Elgin 0.
| Raith | Draw | Elgin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 83% | 12% | 5% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Raith (rating 1550 vs 1495).
- H2H favours Raith: 3-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Raith | Elgin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.3 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 33/44/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.3 | 2.5 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Raith 3–0–0 Elgin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/25 Scotland League Cup | Elgin | 1-5 HT 0-3 | Raith |
| 15/11/19 Scotland League Challenge Cup | Raith | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Elgin |
| 28/11/15 Scotland FA Cup | Elgin | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Raith |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group H
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elgin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hamilton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kilmarnock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Peterhead | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Raith | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Raith
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | FC Edinburgh UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Hamilton UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 01/05 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 14/04 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Morton Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Inverness CT Scotland League Challenge Cup |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/03 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 24/03 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
Elgin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Johnstone Burgh Club Friendly List |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 30/06 | Nairn County UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Airdrieonians UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Stranraer Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Spartans Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 28/03 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/03 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Raith vs Elgin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Raith win (81%). Probabilities: Raith 81%, draw 13%, Elgin 6%.
How many goals are expected in Raith vs Elgin?
The model expects 3.74 goals (Raith 2.87 · Elgin 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Raith vs Elgin?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.