Football · Brazil Serie A · 17/07, 00:30
Prediction: Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Vitoria1.75
Vasco da Gama1.59
1X2
Vitoria
Draw
Vasco da Gama
Markets
Over 2.25 goals 61%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1Most likely total: 3 goals
Recent form · 10 last
Vitoria
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Vasco da Gama
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vitoria
2–4
Vasco da Gama
(6 last)
40%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vitoria 1553 · Vasco da Gama 1493
| Vitoria | Draw | Vasco da Gama | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +1.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Expected goals3.33Vitoria 1.75 · Vasco da Gama 1.59
Over / Under 2.25Over 2.25 · 61%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vitoria (rating 1553 vs 1493).
- H2H favours Vasco da Gama: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vitoria | Vasco da Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/0/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.3 | 2.4 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.7 | 4.7 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria 2–0–4 Vasco da Gama
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/25 Brazil Serie A | Vasco da Gama | 4-3 HT 1-2 | Vitoria |
| 10/05/25 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Vasco da Gama |
| 01/09/24 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Vasco da Gama |
| 12/05/24 Brazil Serie A | Vasco da Gama | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Vitoria |
| 11/11/21 Brazil Serie B | Vasco da Gama | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Vitoria |
| 08/08/21 Brazil Serie B | Vitoria | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Vasco da Gama |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 34 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 30 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 26 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| 9 | Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
| 11 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 22 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 22 |
| 14 | Internacional | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 20 |
| 18 | Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 16 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vitoria | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 2-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Bragantino | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Flamengo | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Vitoria (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vitoria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 28/05 | ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste |
2-2 | 6-2 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 17/05 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 15/05 | Flamengo Copa do Brasil |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 07/05 | Ceara Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
Vasco da Gama
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 28/05 | Barracas Central Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 25/05 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Olimpia Asuncion Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Paysandu Copa do Brasil |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 11/05 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 07/05 | Audax Italiano Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 01/05 | Olimpia Asuncion Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Vitoria win (40%). Probabilities: Vitoria 40%, draw 27%, Vasco da Gama 33%.
How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Vitoria 1.75 · Vasco da Gama 1.59), with a 61% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.