Football · Brazil Serie A · 23/07, 02:30
Prediction: Sao Paulo vs Athletico Paranaense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.07Total
Sao Paulo1.26
Athletico Paranaense0.81
1X2
Sao Paulo
Draw
Athletico Paranaense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Sao Paulo
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Athletico Paranaense
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sao Paulo
4–1–1
Athletico Paranaense
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sao Paulo 1470 · Athletico Paranaense 1510
| Sao Paulo | Draw | Athletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 32% | 23% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletico Paranaense (rating 1470 vs 1510).
- H2H favours Sao Paulo: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sao Paulo | Athletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 11/67/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.2 | 3.1 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.1 | 5.3 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo 4–1–1 Athletico Paranaense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/25 Copa do Brasil | Athletico Paranaense | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sao Paulo |
| 01/08/25 Copa do Brasil | Sao Paulo | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 10/11/24 Brazil Serie A | Sao Paulo | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 04/07/24 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Sao Paulo |
| 29/10/23 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sao Paulo |
| 22/06/23 Brazil Serie A | Sao Paulo | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Athletico Paranaense |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 34 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 30 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 26 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| 9 | Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
| 11 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 22 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 22 |
| 14 | Internacional | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 20 |
| 18 | Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 16 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 9 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sao Paulo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 27/05 | Boston River Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 20/05 | Millonarios Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 17/05 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 14/05 | EC Juventude Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 08/05 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 29/04 | Millonarios Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
Athletico Paranaense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Bragantino America Friendlies |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/07 | Boca Juniors America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Atletico GO Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 24/04 | Atletico GO Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo vs Athletico Paranaense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo win (47%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo 47%, draw 30%, Athletico Paranaense 24%.
How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Athletico Paranaense?
The model expects 2.07 goals (Sao Paulo 1.26 · Athletico Paranaense 0.81), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Athletico Paranaense?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.