Football · Brazil Serie A · 23/07, 02:30
Prediction: Internacional vs Cruzeiro
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
Internacional1.49
Cruzeiro1.23
1X2
Internacional
Draw
Cruzeiro
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Internacional
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Cruzeiro
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Internacional
3–2–1
Cruzeiro
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Internacional 1519 · Cruzeiro 1553
| Internacional | Draw | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Internacional: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Internacional | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.9 | 3.2 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional 3–2–1 Cruzeiro
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/25 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Internacional |
| 06/04/25 Brazil Serie A | Internacional | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Cruzeiro |
| 29/08/24 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Internacional |
| 26/08/24 Brazil Serie A | Internacional | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cruzeiro |
| 05/11/23 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Internacional |
| 02/07/23 Brazil Serie A | Internacional | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cruzeiro |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 34 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 30 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 26 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| 9 | Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
| 11 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 22 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 22 |
| 14 | Internacional | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 20 |
| 18 | Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 16 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 9 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Internacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Athletic Club MG Copa do Brasil |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/05 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Recopa Gaucha |
0-0 | 2-1 | 15 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | Athletic Club MG Copa do Brasil |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | L |
Cruzeiro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Gremio Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Defensor Sporting America Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Boca Juniors Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 13/05 | Goias Copa do Brasil |
1-0 | 1-0 | 14 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 07/05 | Universidad Catolica Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Internacional vs Cruzeiro?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional win (42%). Probabilities: Internacional 42%, draw 28%, Cruzeiro 30%.
How many goals are expected in Internacional vs Cruzeiro?
The model expects 2.72 goals (Internacional 1.49 · Cruzeiro 1.23), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Cruzeiro?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.