Prediction: Chapecoense vs Flamengo
| Chapecoense | Draw | Flamengo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 23% | 64% |
| Market | 14% | 21% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1505 vs 1549).
- H2H favours Flamengo: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chapecoense | Flamengo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.2 | 3.6 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chapecoense 1–1–4 Flamengo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/21 Brazil Serie A | Chapecoense | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Flamengo |
| 11/07/21 Brazil Serie A | Flamengo | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Chapecoense |
| 06/10/19 Brazil Serie A | Chapecoense | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Flamengo |
| 12/05/19 Brazil Serie A | Flamengo | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Chapecoense |
| 09/09/18 Brazil Serie A | Flamengo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Chapecoense |
| 13/05/18 Brazil Serie A | Chapecoense | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Flamengo |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 34 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 30 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 26 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| 9 | Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
| 11 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 22 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 22 |
| 14 | Internacional | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 20 |
| 18 | Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 16 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 9 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chapecoense | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Palmeiras | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Chapecoense (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chapecoense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Gremio America Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 04/06 | Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/05 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 14/05 | Botafogo Copa do Brasil |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
Flamengo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Benfica World Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/07 | FC Lausanne-Sport World Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 03/07 | River Plate America Friendlies |
2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Cusco FC Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 12 | L |
| 21/05 | Estudiantes LP Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 18/05 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Vitoria Copa do Brasil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chapecoense vs Flamengo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Flamengo win (64%). Probabilities: Chapecoense 13%, draw 22%, Flamengo 64%.
How many goals are expected in Chapecoense vs Flamengo?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Chapecoense 0.73 · Flamengo 1.9), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Flamengo?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.