Football · Brazil Serie A · 17/07, 00:30
Prediction: Botafogo vs Santos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
Botafogo1.79
Santos1.21
1X2
Botafogo
Draw
Santos
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1Most likely total: 3 goals
Recent form · 10 last
Botafogo
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Santos
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Botafogo
2–3–1
Santos
(6 last)
49%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botafogo 1549 · Santos 1540
| Botafogo | Draw | Santos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Expected goals3Botafogo 1.79 · Santos 1.21
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 54%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Botafogo: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Botafogo | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 1.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/0/40% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.8 | 2.3 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo 2–3–1 Santos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/25 Brazil Serie A | Botafogo | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Santos |
| 01/06/25 Brazil Serie A | Santos | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Botafogo |
| 26/11/23 Brazil Serie A | Botafogo | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Santos |
| 23/07/23 Brazil Serie A | Santos | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Botafogo |
| 11/11/22 Brazil Serie A | Botafogo | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Santos |
| 21/07/22 Brazil Serie A | Santos | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Botafogo |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 34 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 30 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 26 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| 9 | Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
| 11 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 22 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 22 |
| 14 | Internacional | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 20 |
| 18 | Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 16 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 9 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Botafogo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 28/05 | Caracas Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 21/05 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 14/05 | Chapecoense Copa do Brasil |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 07/05 | Racing Club Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 29/04 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 14 | 4 | W |
Santos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Uniao Sao Joao America Friendlies |
0-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | San Lorenzo Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 14/05 | Coritiba Copa do Brasil |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | Deportivo Recoleta Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Botafogo vs Santos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo win (49%). Probabilities: Botafogo 49%, draw 27%, Santos 24%.
How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Santos?
The model expects 3 goals (Botafogo 1.79 · Santos 1.21), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Santos?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.