Football · Brazil Serie A · 22/07, 00:30
Prediction: Atletico Mineiro vs EC Bahia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Atletico Mineiro1.6
EC Bahia1.22
1X2
Atletico Mineiro
Draw
EC Bahia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Mineiro
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
EC Bahia
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Mineiro
2–1–3
EC Bahia
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Mineiro 1548 · EC Bahia 1464
| Atletico Mineiro | Draw | EC Bahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 44% | 29% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Mineiro (rating 1548 vs 1464).
- H2H favours EC Bahia: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Mineiro | EC Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.8 | 3.3 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.5 | 5.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Mineiro 2–1–3 EC Bahia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Atletico Mineiro | 3-0 HT 0-0 | EC Bahia |
| 13/07/25 Brazil Serie A | EC Bahia | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 15/09/24 Brazil Serie A | EC Bahia | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 02/06/24 Brazil Serie A | Atletico Mineiro | 1-1 HT 0-0 | EC Bahia |
| 07/12/23 Brazil Serie A | EC Bahia | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 13/08/23 Brazil Serie A | Atletico Mineiro | 1-0 HT 0-0 | EC Bahia |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 34 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 30 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 26 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| 9 | Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
| 11 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 22 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 22 |
| 14 | Internacional | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 20 |
| 18 | Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 16 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 9 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Mineiro | EC Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Cruzeiro | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Mineiro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Cienciano Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/05 | Ceara Copa do Brasil |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 06/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 12 | W |
| 30/04 | Cienciano Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
EC Bahia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Fluminense America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 04/07 | Torque America Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 9 | W |
| 26/05 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 14/05 | Remo Copa do Brasil |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 23/04 | Remo Copa do Brasil |
1-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Mineiro vs EC Bahia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Mineiro win (45%). Probabilities: Atletico Mineiro 45%, draw 28%, EC Bahia 28%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Mineiro vs EC Bahia?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Atletico Mineiro 1.6 · EC Bahia 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Mineiro vs EC Bahia?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.