Prediction: Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense
- Vasco da Gama3-2Fluminense
- Fluminense1-1Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama0-1Fluminense
- Fluminense1-0Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama2-1Fluminense
- Vasco da Gama2-0Fluminense
| Vasco da Gama | Draw | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Market | 31% | 29% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fluminense (rating 1476 vs 1552).
- H2H favours Vasco da Gama: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vasco da Gama | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.7 | 2.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.4 | 4.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasco da Gama 3–1–2 Fluminense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/26 Brazil Serie A | Vasco da Gama | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Fluminense |
| 01/03/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Fluminense | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Vasco da Gama |
| 22/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Vasco da Gama | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Fluminense |
| 15/12/25 Copa do Brasil | Fluminense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Vasco da Gama |
| 12/12/25 Copa do Brasil | Vasco da Gama | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Fluminense |
| 21/10/25 Brazil Serie A | Vasco da Gama | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Fluminense |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vasco da Gama | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Vitoria | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Bragantino | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Fluminense (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vasco da Gama
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 23/07 | Independiente Medellin Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 17/07 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 28/05 | Barracas Central Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 25/05 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Olimpia Asuncion Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Paysandu Copa do Brasil |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 11/05 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Fluminense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 12/07 | EC Bahia America Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 09/07 | Nova Iguacu America Friendlies |
2-1 | 6-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | Bolivar Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 13/05 | Operario PR Copa do Brasil |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Fluminense win (40%). Probabilities: Vasco da Gama 30%, draw 29%, Fluminense 40%.
How many goals are expected in Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense?
The model expects 2.37 goals (Vasco da Gama 1.08 · Fluminense 1.29), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.