Prediction: Vitoria vs Athletico Paranaense
Team pages: Vitoria · Athletico Paranaense
- Athletico Paranaense2-0Vitoria
- Athletico Paranaense3-1Vitoria
- Athletico Paranaense1-2Vitoria
- Vitoria0-1Athletico Paranaense
- Vitoria1-2Athletico Paranaense
- Athletico Paranaense4-0Vitoria
| Vitoria | Draw | Athletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 32% | 31% |
| Market | 38% | 29% | 33% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletico Paranaense (rating 1483 vs 1558).
- H2H favours Athletico Paranaense: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vitoria | Athletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 33/44/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.2 | 2.6 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.6 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria 1–0–5 Athletico Paranaense
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/26 Copa do Brasil | Athletico Paranaense | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Vitoria |
| 26/04/26 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Vitoria |
| 02/11/24 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Vitoria |
| 30/06/24 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 17/11/18 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 29/07/18 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Vitoria |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vitoria | Athletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|
| Remo | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Internacional | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Athletico Paranaense (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vitoria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Athletico Paranaense Copa do Brasil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 30/07 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 27/07 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/07 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 28/05 | ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Athletico Paranaense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Vitoria Copa do Brasil |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/07 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 25/07 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/07 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Bragantino America Friendlies |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/07 | Boca Juniors America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Atletico GO Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vitoria vs Athletico Paranaense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Vitoria win (37%). Probabilities: Vitoria 37%, draw 30%, Athletico Paranaense 32%.
How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Athletico Paranaense?
The model expects 2.16 goals (Vitoria 1.13 · Athletico Paranaense 1.03), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Athletico Paranaense?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.