Prediction: Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama
Team pages: Fluminense · Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama0-0Fluminense
- Vasco da Gama3-2Fluminense
- Fluminense1-1Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama0-1Fluminense
- Fluminense1-0Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama2-1Fluminense
| Fluminense | Draw | Vasco da Gama | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Market | 47% | 29% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fluminense (rating 1533 vs 1482).
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fluminense | Vasco da Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.9 | 2.2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fluminense 2–2–2 Vasco da Gama
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 Copa do Brasil | Vasco da Gama | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Fluminense |
| 19/03/26 Brazil Serie A | Vasco da Gama | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Fluminense |
| 01/03/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Fluminense | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Vasco da Gama |
| 22/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Vasco da Gama | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Fluminense |
| 15/12/25 Copa do Brasil | Fluminense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Vasco da Gama |
| 12/12/25 Copa do Brasil | Vasco da Gama | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Fluminense |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fluminense | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Bragantino | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Mirassol | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fluminense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Vasco da Gama Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 18/07 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 12/07 | EC Bahia America Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 09/07 | Nova Iguacu America Friendlies |
2-1 | 6-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | Bolivar Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Vasco da Gama
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Fluminense Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 30/07 | Independiente Medellin Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 23/07 | Independiente Medellin Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 17/07 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 28/05 | Barracas Central Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 25/05 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Olimpia Asuncion Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fluminense win (46%). Probabilities: Fluminense 46%, draw 30%, Vasco da Gama 24%.
How many goals are expected in Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?
The model expects 2.24 goals (Fluminense 1.34 · Vasco da Gama 0.9), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.