Football · Copa do Brasil · 06/08, 00:30
Prediction: Gremio vs Mirassol
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Gremio1.34
Mirassol0.96
1X2
Gremio
Draw
Mirassol
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gremio
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Mirassol
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gremio
0–1–4
Mirassol
(5 last)
- Mirassol1-1Gremio
- Mirassol2-1Gremio
- Gremio0-1Mirassol
- Mirassol4-1Gremio
- Mirassol3-2Gremio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gremio 1487 · Mirassol 1532
| Gremio | Draw | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | 45% | 29% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mirassol (rating 1487 vs 1532).
- H2H favours Mirassol: 4-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gremio | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.7 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/33/56% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.5 | 2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.6 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio 0–1–4 Mirassol
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 Copa do Brasil | Mirassol | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Gremio |
| 18/07/26 Brazil Serie A | Mirassol | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Gremio |
| 13/09/25 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Mirassol |
| 17/04/25 Brazil Serie A | Mirassol | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Gremio |
| 02/03/22 Copa do Brasil | Mirassol | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Gremio |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gremio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Mirassol Copa do Brasil |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 31/07 | Bolivar Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 26/07 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 24/07 | Bolivar Copa Sudamericana |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Cruzeiro Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/07 | Chapecoense America Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Cascavel America Friendlies |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/05 | Torque Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
Mirassol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Gremio Copa do Brasil |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/07 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 27/05 | Lanus Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 20/05 | Always Ready Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 16/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 14/05 | Bragantino Copa do Brasil |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gremio vs Mirassol?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio win (44%). Probabilities: Gremio 44%, draw 30%, Mirassol 26%.
How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Mirassol?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Gremio 1.34 · Mirassol 0.96), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Mirassol?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.