Prediction: Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense
Team pages: Cruzeiro · Chapecoense
- Chapecoense0-0Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro2-1Chapecoense
- Cruzeiro1-1Chapecoense
- Chapecoense0-2Cruzeiro
- Chapecoense0-1Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro0-1Chapecoense
| Cruzeiro | Draw | Chapecoense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 21% | 9% |
| Market | 70% | 20% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruzeiro (rating 1533 vs 1472).
- H2H favours Cruzeiro: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cruzeiro | Chapecoense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.8 | 2.1 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruzeiro 3–2–1 Chapecoense
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 Copa do Brasil | Chapecoense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cruzeiro |
| 24/05/26 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Chapecoense |
| 13/08/22 Brazil Serie B | Cruzeiro | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Chapecoense |
| 01/05/22 Brazil Serie B | Chapecoense | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Cruzeiro |
| 25/11/20 Brazil Serie B | Chapecoense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cruzeiro |
| 21/08/20 Brazil Serie B | Cruzeiro | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Chapecoense |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cruzeiro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Chapecoense Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 31/07 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 23/07 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 12/07 | Gremio Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Defensor Sporting America Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Boca Juniors Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
Chapecoense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Cruzeiro Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 23/07 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | Gremio America Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 04/06 | Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/05 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cruzeiro win (70%). Probabilities: Cruzeiro 70%, draw 20%, Chapecoense 10%.
How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense?
The model expects 2.55 goals (Cruzeiro 1.97 · Chapecoense 0.58), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.