Football · Copa do Brasil · 02/08, 21:00
Prediction: Palmeiras vs Fortaleza
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Palmeiras2.42
Fortaleza0.44
1X2
Palmeiras
Draw
Fortaleza
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Palmeiras
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Fortaleza
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Palmeiras
3–2–1
Fortaleza
(6 last)
- Palmeiras4-1Fortaleza
- Fortaleza1-2Palmeiras
- Palmeiras2-2Fortaleza
- Fortaleza3-0Palmeiras
- Fortaleza2-2Palmeiras
- Palmeiras3-1Fortaleza
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Palmeiras 1598 · Fortaleza 1475
| Palmeiras | Draw | Fortaleza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 81% | 15% | 4% |
| Market | 81% | 15% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (rating 1598 vs 1475).
- H2H favours Palmeiras: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Palmeiras | Fortaleza | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.7 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.4 | 2.8 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmeiras 3–2–1 Fortaleza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/25 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Fortaleza |
| 20/04/25 Brazil Serie A | Fortaleza | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Palmeiras |
| 26/10/24 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Fortaleza |
| 27/06/24 Brazil Serie A | Fortaleza | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Palmeiras |
| 26/11/23 Brazil Serie A | Fortaleza | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Palmeiras |
| 22/07/23 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Fortaleza |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Palmeiras
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Junior Copa Libertadores |
3-1 | 4-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 12 | W |
| 21/05 | Cerro Porteno Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 14/05 | Jacuipense Copa do Brasil |
3-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 17 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Sporting Cristal Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
Fortaleza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 12/07 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 03/07 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 28/06 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 17/06 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 10/06 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 06/06 | Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 03/06 | Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Palmeiras vs Fortaleza?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Palmeiras win (81%). Probabilities: Palmeiras 81%, draw 15%, Fortaleza 4%.
How many goals are expected in Palmeiras vs Fortaleza?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Palmeiras 2.42 · Fortaleza 0.44), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Fortaleza?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.