Football · Copa do Brasil · 02/08, 23:00
Prediction: Mirassol vs Gremio
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Mirassol1.4
Gremio1.06
1X2
Mirassol
Draw
Gremio
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Mirassol
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Gremio
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mirassol
4–0
Gremio
(4 last)
- Mirassol2-1Gremio
- Gremio0-1Mirassol
- Mirassol4-1Gremio
- Mirassol3-2Gremio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mirassol 1532 · Gremio 1516
| Mirassol | Draw | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 29% | 27% |
| Market | 44% | 29% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Mirassol: 4-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mirassol | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 22/44/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.5 | 2.9 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mirassol 4–0–0 Gremio
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 Brazil Serie A | Mirassol | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Gremio |
| 13/09/25 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Mirassol |
| 17/04/25 Brazil Serie A | Mirassol | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Gremio |
| 02/03/22 Copa do Brasil | Mirassol | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Gremio |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mirassol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 27/05 | Lanus Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 20/05 | Always Ready Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 16/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 14/05 | Bragantino Copa do Brasil |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 08/05 | LDU Quito Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Gremio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Bolivar Copa Sudamericana |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Cruzeiro Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/07 | Chapecoense America Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Cascavel America Friendlies |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/05 | Torque Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Palestino Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mirassol vs Gremio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mirassol win (43%). Probabilities: Mirassol 43%, draw 29%, Gremio 28%.
How many goals are expected in Mirassol vs Gremio?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Mirassol 1.4 · Gremio 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Gremio?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.