Football · Copa do Brasil · 03/08, 00:30
Prediction: Internacional vs Corinthians
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Internacional1.29
Corinthians1.07
1X2
Internacional
Draw
Corinthians
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Internacional
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Corinthians
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Internacional
3–2–1
Corinthians
(6 last)
- Corinthians0-1Internacional
- Internacional1-1Corinthians
- Corinthians4-2Internacional
- Corinthians2-2Internacional
- Internacional1-0Corinthians
- Corinthians1-2Internacional
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Internacional 1485 · Corinthians 1548
| Internacional | Draw | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Corinthians (rating 1485 vs 1548).
- H2H favours Internacional: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Internacional | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.6 | 2.6 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.4 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional 3–2–1 Corinthians
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Internacional |
| 02/10/25 Brazil Serie A | Internacional | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Corinthians |
| 03/05/25 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Internacional |
| 06/10/24 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Internacional |
| 20/06/24 Brazil Serie A | Internacional | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Corinthians |
| 02/12/23 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Internacional |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Internacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 23/07 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Athletic Club MG Copa do Brasil |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/05 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Recopa Gaucha |
0-0 | 2-1 | 15 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
Corinthians
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 24/07 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | FC Cascavel America Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Platense Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Penarol Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 17/05 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 15/05 | Barra FC Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Internacional vs Corinthians?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional win (40%). Probabilities: Internacional 40%, draw 30%, Corinthians 30%.
How many goals are expected in Internacional vs Corinthians?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Internacional 1.29 · Corinthians 1.07), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Corinthians?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.