Football · Norway Eliteserien · 31/07, 19:00

Prediction: Valerenga vs Ham-Kam

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Valerenga1.98

Ham-Kam1.23

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Valerenga Draw Ham-Kam

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Valerenga 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLWLWW

Ham-Kam 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWDLLL

Head-to-head

Valerenga 2–2–2 Ham-Kam (6 last)

Ham-Kam1-0Valerenga
Ham-Kam2-1Valerenga
Valerenga1-1Ham-Kam
Valerenga2-2Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam0-2Valerenga
Valerenga3-0Ham-Kam

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valerenga 1511 · Ham-Kam 1503

	Valerenga	Draw	Ham-Kam
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valerenga	Ham-Kam
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.1	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.09
2	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.66 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +5’	1.73	3.80	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:10	1.66	4.09	4.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerenga 2–2–2 Ham-Kam

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Ham-Kam	1-0 HT 1-0	Valerenga
19/10/25 Norway Eliteserien	Ham-Kam	2-1 HT 1-0	Valerenga
16/05/25 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	1-1 HT 1-1	Ham-Kam
08/05/24 Norway Cup	Valerenga	2-2 HT 2-0	Ham-Kam
26/11/23 Norway Eliteserien	Ham-Kam	0-2 HT 0-0	Valerenga
16/05/23 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	3-0 HT 3-0	Ham-Kam

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	15	11	2	2	37	11	35
2	Viking FK	14	11	1	2	34	14	34
3	Tromso	15	9	4	2	26	15	31
4	Lillestrom	14	8	1	5	22	14	25
5	Molde	14	7	2	5	25	19	23
6	Sarpsborg	14	6	3	5	15	16	21
7	Valerenga	14	6	2	6	22	24	20
8	SK Brann	15	6	1	8	30	25	19
9	Ham-Kam	14	5	3	6	20	26	18
10	Rosenborg	13	4	3	6	15	18	15
11	Sandefjord	14	4	3	7	13	20	15
12	Fredrikstad	13	4	2	7	15	23	14
13	Aalesund	14	2	7	5	19	29	13
14	KFUM	14	3	3	8	15	25	12
15	Kristiansund BK	14	3	3	8	12	23	12
16	IK Start	15	2	4	9	16	34	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valerenga	Ham-Kam
Aalesund	6-1 W	2-2 D
Tromso	0-4 L	1-4 L
Fredrikstad	3-1 W	1-1 D
IFK Goteborg	1-1 D	2-1 W
Sarpsborg	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Valerenga (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Valerenga

LWLWDLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	3-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	3-0	6-1	8	0	W
11/07	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-3	0-4	7	2	L
04/07	Fredrikstad Europe Friendlies	3-1	3-1	5	5	W
27/06	GAIS Club Friendly List	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
18/06	IFK Goteborg Club Friendly List	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
29/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
25/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	7	1	L
16/05	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	2-2	3-2	7	1	W
08/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	6	4	L

Ham-Kam

WLWDDWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
22/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	1	1	L
18/07	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-4	1	0	L
12/07	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
27/06	IFK Goteborg Club Friendly List	0-1	2-1	4	1	W
20/06	Fredrikstad Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
29/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
25/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
16/05	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
08/05	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valerenga win (54%). Probabilities: Valerenga 54%, draw 24%, Ham-Kam 22%.

How many goals are expected in Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Valerenga 1.98 · Ham-Kam 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.