Football · Norway Eliteserien · 01/08, 16:00

Prediction: Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Fredrikstad1.4

Sandefjord1.08

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Fredrikstad Draw Sandefjord

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Fredrikstad 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDWDDLLL

Sandefjord 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWWLDLDLL

Head-to-head

Fredrikstad 3–3–0 Sandefjord (6 last)

Sandefjord1-1Fredrikstad
Sandefjord0-0Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad4-0Sandefjord
Fredrikstad3-1Sandefjord
Sandefjord2-2Fredrikstad
Sandefjord0-1Fredrikstad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fredrikstad 1451 · Sandefjord 1461

	Fredrikstad	Draw	Sandefjord
Our model	43%	29%	28%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fredrikstad: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fredrikstad	Sandefjord
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.8	3.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +7’	2.05	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fredrikstad 3–3–0 Sandefjord

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	1-1 HT 0-0	Fredrikstad
26/10/25 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	0-0 HT 0-0	Fredrikstad
15/06/25 Club Friendly List	Fredrikstad	4-0 HT 2-0	Sandefjord
21/04/25 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	3-1 HT 3-1	Sandefjord
15/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Sandefjord	2-2 HT 2-1	Fredrikstad
01/12/24 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	0-1 HT 0-0	Fredrikstad

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	15	11	2	2	37	11	35
2	Viking FK	14	11	1	2	34	14	34
3	Tromso	15	9	4	2	26	15	31
4	Lillestrom	14	8	1	5	22	14	25
5	Molde	14	7	2	5	25	19	23
6	Sarpsborg	14	6	3	5	15	16	21
7	Valerenga	14	6	2	6	22	24	20
8	SK Brann	15	6	1	8	30	25	19
9	Ham-Kam	14	5	3	6	20	26	18
10	Rosenborg	13	4	3	6	15	18	15
11	Sandefjord	14	4	3	7	13	20	15
12	Fredrikstad	13	4	2	7	15	23	14
13	Aalesund	14	2	7	5	19	29	13
14	KFUM	14	3	3	8	15	25	12
15	Kristiansund BK	14	3	3	8	12	23	12
16	IK Start	15	2	4	9	16	34	10

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fredrikstad	Sandefjord
Bodo/Glimt	0-1 L	0-3 L
Lillestrom	0-2 L	1-3 L
Ham-Kam	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fredrikstad (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fredrikstad

LLWDWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	0	5	L
11/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
04/07	Valerenga Europe Friendlies	1-3	1-3	6	5	L
28/06	Elfsborg Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
20/06	Ham-Kam Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
29/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
25/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
16/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
09/05	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
02/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-3	2	2	L

Sandefjord

DLWWLDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
18/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
12/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
30/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	10	4	L
25/05	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
16/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
10/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
03/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
26/04	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-3	6	0	L
18/04	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fredrikstad win (44%). Probabilities: Fredrikstad 44%, draw 27%, Sandefjord 29%.

How many goals are expected in Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Fredrikstad 1.4 · Sandefjord 1.08), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.