Football · Norway Eliteserien · 31/07, 21:00

Prediction: Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.61Total

Bodo/Glimt2.65

Lillestrom0.96

1X2

73% 16% 11%

Bodo/Glimt Draw Lillestrom

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Bodo/Glimt 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWWWW

Lillestrom 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWWWL

Head-to-head

Bodo/Glimt 5–1 Lillestrom (6 last)

Lillestrom0-2Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt4-0Lillestrom
Bodo/Glimt5-2Lillestrom
Bodo/Glimt2-4Lillestrom
Lillestrom0-5Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt3-1Lillestrom

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bodo/Glimt 1635 · Lillestrom 1469

	Bodo/Glimt	Draw	Lillestrom
Our model	73%	17%	11%
Market	73%	16%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bodo/Glimt (rating 1635 vs 1469).
H2H favours Bodo/Glimt: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bodo/Glimt	Lillestrom
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.7	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.4	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.75

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Pinn 1.30
X	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.10 ★
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +7’	1.27	5.75	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +1’	1.30	6.10	7.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bodo/Glimt 5–0–1 Lillestrom

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	0-2 HT 0-1	Bodo/Glimt
22/03/26 Norway Cup	Bodo/Glimt	4-0 HT 1-0	Lillestrom
01/12/24 Norway Eliteserien	Bodo/Glimt	5-2 HT 2-1	Lillestrom
01/05/24 Norway Cup	Bodo/Glimt	2-4 HT 2-2	Lillestrom
14/04/24 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	0-5 HT 0-1	Bodo/Glimt
30/10/23 Norway Eliteserien	Bodo/Glimt	3-1 HT 1-0	Lillestrom

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	15	11	2	2	37	11	35
2	Viking FK	14	11	1	2	34	14	34
3	Tromso	15	9	4	2	26	15	31
4	Lillestrom	14	8	1	5	22	14	25
5	Molde	14	7	2	5	25	19	23
6	Sarpsborg	14	6	3	5	15	16	21
7	Valerenga	14	6	2	6	22	24	20
8	SK Brann	15	6	1	8	30	25	19
9	Ham-Kam	14	5	3	6	20	26	18
10	Rosenborg	13	4	3	6	15	18	15
11	Sandefjord	14	4	3	7	13	20	15
12	Fredrikstad	13	4	2	7	15	23	14
13	Aalesund	14	2	7	5	19	29	13
14	KFUM	14	3	3	8	15	25	12
15	Kristiansund BK	14	3	3	8	12	23	12
16	IK Start	15	2	4	9	16	34	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bodo/Glimt	Lillestrom
Sandefjord	3-0 W	3-1 W
Ham-Kam	3-0 W	0-2 L
Fredrikstad	1-0 W	2-0 W
KFUM	2-0 W	2-1 W
Rosenborg	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bodo/Glimt (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bodo/Glimt

DWWWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
22/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
17/07	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	12	5	W
12/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
28/06	Molde Europe Friendlies	2-0	4-1	3	2	W
29/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
24/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-0	3-1	6	1	W
20/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	5	1	W
16/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-0	5-0	4	2	W
09/05	SK Brann Norway Cup	1-2	2-2	8	4	D

Lillestrom

LWLLLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
18/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
11/07	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
03/07	Sarpsborg Europe Friendlies	3-1	3-1	8	2	W
26/06	Degerfors Club Friendly List	2-1	2-3	5	1	L
20/06	Midtjylland Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
25/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
20/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	11	L
16/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
10/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bodo/Glimt win (73%). Probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 73%, draw 16%, Lillestrom 11%.

How many goals are expected in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?

The model expects 3.61 goals (Bodo/Glimt 2.65 · Lillestrom 0.96), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.