Football · Norway Eliteserien · 01/08, 18:00

Prediction: IK Start vs Viking FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

IK Start1.1

Viking FK2.25

1X2

17% 21% 62%

IK Start Draw Viking FK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

IK Start 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWLLLW

Viking FK 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDLWWD

Head-to-head

IK Start 1–2–3 Viking FK (6 last)

Viking FK6-3IK Start
Viking FK4-0IK Start
Viking FK3-4IK Start
Viking FK3-3IK Start
Viking FK4-1IK Start
IK Start1-1Viking FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IK Start 1435 · Viking FK 1585

	IK Start	Draw	Viking FK
Our model	17%	21%	62%
Market	17%	21%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viking FK (rating 1435 vs 1585).
H2H favours Viking FK: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IK Start	Viking FK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.6	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.1	3.9 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.50

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 5.50▼	Bet365 5.50
X	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 4.67 ★
2	1.40 → 1.48▲	Pinn 1.53

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +1’	6.50	4.75	1.40
15:11 +3’	5.50▼	4.50▼	1.48▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:14	5.36	4.67	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IK Start 1–2–3 Viking FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	6-3 HT 1-3	IK Start
06/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Viking FK	4-0 HT 3-0	IK Start
23/03/25 Europe Friendlies	Viking FK	3-4 HT 1-2	IK Start
25/04/21 Europe Friendlies	Viking FK	3-3 HT 2-2	IK Start
28/11/20 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	4-1 HT 1-0	IK Start
04/07/20 Norway Eliteserien	IK Start	1-1 HT 0-0	Viking FK

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	15	11	2	2	37	11	35
2	Viking FK	14	11	1	2	34	14	34
3	Tromso	15	9	4	2	26	15	31
4	Lillestrom	14	8	1	5	22	14	25
5	Molde	14	7	2	5	25	19	23
6	Sarpsborg	14	6	3	5	15	16	21
7	Valerenga	14	6	2	6	22	24	20
8	SK Brann	15	6	1	8	30	25	19
9	Ham-Kam	14	5	3	6	20	26	18
10	Rosenborg	13	4	3	6	15	18	15
11	Sandefjord	14	4	3	7	13	20	15
12	Fredrikstad	13	4	2	7	15	23	14
13	Aalesund	14	2	7	5	19	29	13
14	KFUM	14	3	3	8	15	25	12
15	Kristiansund BK	14	3	3	8	12	23	12
16	IK Start	15	2	4	9	16	34	10

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IK Start	Viking FK
Kristiansund BK	2-1 W	2-1 W
Rosenborg	0-3 L	3-0 W
Fredrikstad	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Viking FK (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

IK Start

LLDLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
18/07	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
12/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
29/05	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
25/05	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	5	1	W
20/05	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-4	1	1	L
16/05	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	3-1	3-6	2	5	L
03/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
30/04	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-5	4	4	L
26/04	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-2	1	2	L

Viking FK

WWWWWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	10	7	D
22/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	9	6	W
18/07	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
12/07	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
03/07	Sonderjyske Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
16/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-3	6-3	12	5	W
10/05	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
01/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	2-0	3-0	7	5	W
25/04	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IK Start vs Viking FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Viking FK win (62%). Probabilities: IK Start 17%, draw 21%, Viking FK 62%.

How many goals are expected in IK Start vs Viking FK?

The model expects 3.35 goals (IK Start 1.1 · Viking FK 2.25), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in IK Start vs Viking FK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.