Football · Norway Eliteserien · 26/07, 19:15

Prediction: Aalesund vs Viking FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Aalesund1.11

Viking FK2.34

1X2

16% 21% 64%

Aalesund Draw Viking FK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Aalesund 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWDDWDL

Viking FK 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Aalesund 2–4 Viking FK (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aalesund 1513 · Viking FK 1572

	Aalesund	Draw	Viking FK
Our model	16%	20%	64%
Market	15%	21%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viking FK (rating 1513 vs 1572).
H2H favours Viking FK: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aalesund	Viking FK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	2.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	3.4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.00

X4.33

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.82

2 (-1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +6’	6.00	4.33	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aalesund 2–0–4 Viking FK

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Norway Cup	Viking FK	1-2 HT 1-0	Aalesund
25/06/25 Norway Cup	Aalesund	0-1 HT 0-0	Viking FK
26/11/23 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	0-4 HT 0-2	Viking FK
24/07/23 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	3-1 HT 1-1	Aalesund
02/10/22 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	2-1 HT 0-0	Viking FK
10/04/22 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	1-0 HT 0-0	Aalesund

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tromso	15	9	4	2	26	15	31
2	Viking FK	12	10	0	2	31	12	30
3	Bodo/Glimt	13	9	2	2	31	11	29
4	Lillestrom	13	8	1	4	21	12	25
5	Molde	13	6	2	5	21	17	20
6	SK Brann	14	6	1	7	28	22	19
7	Ham-Kam	12	5	3	4	20	22	18
8	Sarpsborg	13	5	3	5	14	16	18
9	Valerenga	13	5	2	6	19	22	17
10	Rosenborg	13	4	3	6	15	18	15
11	Sandefjord	13	4	3	6	13	17	15
12	Fredrikstad	13	4	2	7	15	23	14
13	KFUM	13	3	3	7	13	21	12
14	Aalesund	13	2	6	5	18	28	12
15	Kristiansund BK	13	3	3	7	11	21	12
16	IK Start	14	1	4	9	14	33	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aalesund	Viking FK
Kristiansund BK	3-0 W	2-1 W
SK Brann	2-1 W	3-2 W
Rosenborg	3-2 W	3-0 W
Sandefjord	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Viking FK (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Aalesund

LDLWWDDWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-3	1-6	7	0	L
11/07	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
27/06	Kristiansund BK Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
29/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	8	2	D
25/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
20/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
16/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-2	0	8	W
03/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
26/04	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
22/04	SK Brann Norway Cup	0-2	1-2	7	1	L

Viking FK

WWWWWWWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
12/07	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
03/07	Sonderjyske Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
16/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-3	6-3	12	5	W
10/05	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
01/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	2-0	3-0	7	5	W
25/04	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
18/04	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-1	3-2	6	5	W
11/04	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	3-0	5-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aalesund vs Viking FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Viking FK win (64%). Probabilities: Aalesund 16%, draw 21%, Viking FK 64%.

How many goals are expected in Aalesund vs Viking FK?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Aalesund 1.11 · Viking FK 2.34), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Viking FK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.