Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 14/07, 11:30
Prediction: Gold Coast United (W) vs Brisbane City (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Gold Coast United (W)1
Brisbane City (W)1.76
1X2
Gold Coast United (W)
Draw
Brisbane City (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gold Coast United (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Brisbane City (W)
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gold Coast United (W)
0–1–5
Brisbane City (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gold Coast United (W) 1516 · Brisbane City (W) 1606
| Gold Coast United (W) | Draw | Brisbane City (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Market | 21% | 23% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brisbane City (W) (rating 1516 vs 1606).
- H2H favours Brisbane City (W): 5-1-0.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gold Coast United (W) | Brisbane City (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.2 | 2.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.4 | 3.2 / 7.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0.1 | 1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast United (W) 0–1–5 Brisbane City (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Brisbane City (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Gold Coast United (W) |
| 17/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Gold Coast United (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Brisbane City (W) |
| 15/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Brisbane City (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gold Coast United (W) |
| 14/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Gold Coast United (W) | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Brisbane City (W) |
| 07/08/24 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Gold Coast United (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Brisbane City (W) |
| 20/07/24 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Brisbane City (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gold Coast United (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 59 | 16 | 46 |
| 2 | Brisbane City (W) | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 50 | 13 | 45 |
| 3 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 19 | 43 |
| 4 | Lions FC (W) | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 20 | 39 |
| 5 | Gold Coast United (W) | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 30 | 30 |
| 6 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 28 | 27 | 30 |
| 7 | Capalaba (W) | 21 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 29 | 46 | 22 |
| 8 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 21 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 25 | 35 | 20 |
| 9 | FQ QAS Women | 22 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 43 | 64 | 19 |
| 10 | Souths United NPL (W) | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 99 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gold Coast United (W) | Brisbane City (W) |
|---|---|---|
| FQ QAS Women | 3-2 W | 4-1 W |
| Souths United NPL (W) | 12-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Capalaba (W) | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Brisbane City (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gold Coast United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
7-0 | 12-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 30/06 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 24/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 21/06 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 12/05 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
Brisbane City (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 05/07 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 6-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 20/06 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 06/06 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 19 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
5-0 | 8-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gold Coast United (W) vs Brisbane City (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Brisbane City (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Gold Coast United (W) 21%, draw 24%, Brisbane City (W) 55%.
How many goals are expected in Gold Coast United (W) vs Brisbane City (W)?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Gold Coast United (W) 1 · Brisbane City (W) 1.76), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Gold Coast United (W) vs Brisbane City (W)?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.