Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 19/07, 10:00
Prediction: Capalaba (W) vs Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
Capalaba (W)0.81
Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)2.31
1X2
Capalaba (W)
Draw
Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Capalaba (W)
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Capalaba (W)
1–5
Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Capalaba (W) 1450 · Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) 1522
| Capalaba (W) | Draw | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 19% | 70% |
| Market | 12% | 16% | 72% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) (rating 1450 vs 1522).
- H2H favours Eastern Suburbs NPL (W): 5-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Capalaba (W) | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.3 | 1.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 2.8 | 2.4 / 7.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.2 / 0 | 0.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Capalaba (W) 1–0–5 Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Capalaba (W) |
| 27/03/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Capalaba (W) |
| 27/08/23 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) |
| 18/06/23 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Capalaba (W) |
| 09/04/23 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 2-4 HT 1-3 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) |
| 20/08/22 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 59 | 16 | 46 |
| 2 | Brisbane City (W) | 21 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 51 | 14 | 46 |
| 3 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 20 | 43 |
| 4 | Lions FC (W) | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 20 | 39 |
| 5 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 33 |
| 6 | Gold Coast United (W) | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 36 | 31 | 31 |
| 7 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 27 | 36 | 23 |
| 8 | Capalaba (W) | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 30 | 48 | 22 |
| 9 | FQ QAS Women | 22 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 43 | 64 | 19 |
| 10 | Souths United NPL (W) | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 99 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Capalaba (W) | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Souths United NPL (W) | 6-0 W | 4-1 W |
| FQ QAS Women | 3-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Lions FC (W) | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 1-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Gold Coast United (W) | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Capalaba (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
4-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-2 | 1-5 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 30/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/06 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 03/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
4-0 | 4-3 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 30/06 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 20/06 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 06/06 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-2 | 4-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 12/05 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Capalaba (W) vs Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) win (71%). Probabilities: Capalaba (W) 11%, draw 18%, Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) 71%.
How many goals are expected in Capalaba (W) vs Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)?
The model expects 3.12 goals (Capalaba (W) 0.81 · Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) 2.31), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Capalaba (W) vs Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.