Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 18/07, 11:00
Prediction: Lions FC (W) vs Brisbane City (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.21Total
Lions FC (W)1.61
Brisbane City (W)1.59
1X2
Lions FC (W)
Draw
Brisbane City (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lions FC (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Brisbane City (W)
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lions FC (W)
0–2–4
Brisbane City (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lions FC (W) 1540 · Brisbane City (W) 1593
| Lions FC (W) | Draw | Brisbane City (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brisbane City (W) (rating 1540 vs 1593).
- H2H favours Brisbane City (W): 4-2-0.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lions FC (W) | Brisbane City (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.2 | 2.6 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.4 | 3.4 / 7.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 0.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lions FC (W) 0–2–4 Brisbane City (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Brisbane City (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Lions FC (W) |
| 28/03/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Lions FC (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Brisbane City (W) |
| 19/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Brisbane City (W) | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Lions FC (W) |
| 17/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Brisbane City (W) | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Lions FC (W) |
| 13/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Lions FC (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Brisbane City (W) |
| 07/09/24 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Brisbane City (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Lions FC (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 59 | 16 | 46 |
| 2 | Brisbane City (W) | 21 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 51 | 14 | 46 |
| 3 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 20 | 43 |
| 4 | Lions FC (W) | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 20 | 39 |
| 5 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 33 |
| 6 | Gold Coast United (W) | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 36 | 31 | 31 |
| 7 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 27 | 36 | 23 |
| 8 | Capalaba (W) | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 30 | 48 | 22 |
| 9 | FQ QAS Women | 22 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 43 | 64 | 19 |
| 10 | Souths United NPL (W) | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 99 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lions FC (W) | Brisbane City (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 5-0 W | 2-0 W |
| FQ QAS Women | 3-2 W | 4-1 W |
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Souths United NPL (W) | 3-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 5 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Lions FC (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lions FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 23/06 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
Brisbane City (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 05/07 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 6-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 20/06 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 06/06 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 19 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
5-0 | 8-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lions FC (W) vs Brisbane City (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lions FC (W) win (37%). Probabilities: Lions FC (W) 37%, draw 26%, Brisbane City (W) 37%.
How many goals are expected in Lions FC (W) vs Brisbane City (W)?
The model expects 3.21 goals (Lions FC (W) 1.61 · Brisbane City (W) 1.59), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lions FC (W) vs Brisbane City (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.