Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 24/07, 11:30

Prediction: Brisbane Olympic FC (W) vs Brisbane City (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Brisbane Olympic FC (W)1

Brisbane City (W)1.66

1X2

23% 24% 53%

Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Draw Brisbane City (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Brisbane Olympic FC (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWLDWD

Brisbane City (W) 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDDWWWDL

Head-to-head

Brisbane Olympic FC (W) 0–1–5 Brisbane City (W) (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brisbane Olympic FC (W) 1514 · Brisbane City (W) 1565

	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	Draw	Brisbane City (W)
Our model	22%	27%	52%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brisbane City (W) (rating 1514 vs 1565).
H2H favours Brisbane City (W): 5-1-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	Brisbane City (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	2.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 2.9	3.3 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.8 / 0	0.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.00

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:59 +6’	3.80	4.00	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Olympic FC (W) 0–1–5 Brisbane City (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Brisbane City (W)
21/03/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Brisbane City (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)
30/08/25 Australia Queensland Cup Women	Brisbane City (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)
17/08/24 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Brisbane City (W)	8-1 HT 4-1	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)
15/06/24 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	1-6 HT 0-2	Brisbane City (W)
12/04/24 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Brisbane City (W)	4-2 HT 0-0	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gold Coast Knights (W)	21	15	4	2	65	16	49
2	Brisbane City (W)	22	13	7	2	51	15	46
3	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	23	14	4	5	43	20	46
4	Lions FC (W)	21	13	3	5	49	20	42
5	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	23	9	7	7	29	27	34
6	Gold Coast United (W)	22	8	8	6	36	31	32
7	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	23	8	2	13	31	36	26
8	Capalaba (W)	23	7	1	15	30	53	22
9	FQ QAS Women	23	6	1	16	43	70	19
10	Souths United NPL (W)	23	0	1	22	14	103	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	Brisbane City (W)
Gold Coast United (W)	0-0 D	1-1 D
Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Lions FC (W)	0-5 L	0-1 L
Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Brisbane City (W) (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brisbane Olympic FC (W)

LWWLDWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
14/07	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-0	2	0	W
11/07	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	1-1	0	0	D
04/07	Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	0-5	1	0	L
30/06	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
24/06	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	1-1	1	0	D
20/06	Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-2	1-3	0	2	L
06/06	Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-0	2-1	3	0	W
03/06	Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-1	4-1	9	3	W
31/05	Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	0-2	3	1	L

Brisbane City (W)

WWDDDWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
14/07	Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	1-1	7	0	D
11/07	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
05/07	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	1-0	3	0	W
30/06	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	6-0	11	0	W
24/06	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	1-1	10	0	D
20/06	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
06/06	Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-1	19	1	D
31/05	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
24/05	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	5-0	8-2	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brisbane Olympic FC (W) vs Brisbane City (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Brisbane City (W) win (53%). Probabilities: Brisbane Olympic FC (W) 23%, draw 24%, Brisbane City (W) 53%.

How many goals are expected in Brisbane Olympic FC (W) vs Brisbane City (W)?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Brisbane Olympic FC (W) 1 · Brisbane City (W) 1.66), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Brisbane Olympic FC (W) vs Brisbane City (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.