Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 09/08, 17:00
Prediction: FK Atyrau vs FK Aktobe
Team pages: FK Atyrau · FK Aktobe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
FK Atyrau1.06
FK Aktobe1.28
1X2
FK Atyrau
Draw
FK Aktobe
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FK Atyrau
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
FK Aktobe
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Atyrau
0–3–3
FK Aktobe
(6 last)
- FK Aktobe1-1FK Atyrau
- FK Aktobe2-0FK Atyrau
- FK Atyrau0-4FK Aktobe
- FK Atyrau1-2FK Aktobe
- FK Atyrau1-1FK Aktobe
- FK Aktobe1-1FK Atyrau
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Atyrau 1460 · FK Aktobe 1521
| FK Atyrau | Draw | FK Aktobe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 30% | 40% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Aktobe (rating 1460 vs 1521).
- H2H favours FK Aktobe: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Atyrau | FK Aktobe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.2 | 3.6 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 5.4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atyrau 0–3–3 FK Aktobe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FK Atyrau |
| 05/07/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FK Atyrau |
| 30/03/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 0-4 HT 0-2 | FK Aktobe |
| 29/09/24 Kazakhstan Cup | FK Atyrau | 1-2 HT 1-0 | FK Aktobe |
| 11/08/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FK Aktobe |
| 07/04/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 1-1 HT 1-0 | FK Atyrau |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 15 | 46 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 20 | 35 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 29 | 27 | 33 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 24 | 31 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 28 |
| 7 | FK Ulytau | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 20 | 27 |
| 8 | FK Zhenys | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 23 |
| 9 | Tobol Kostanay | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 28 | 22 |
| 10 | FK Kyzylzhar | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 28 | 22 |
| 11 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 28 | 21 |
| 12 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 20 |
| 13 | FK Atyrau | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 19 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 30 | 19 |
| 15 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 25 | 17 |
| 16 | FC Altai Semey | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 30 | 16 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Atyrau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 26/07 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 28/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
FK Aktobe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 25/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 19/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 12/07 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 27/06 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Atyrau vs FK Aktobe?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Aktobe win (41%). Probabilities: FK Atyrau 30%, draw 30%, FK Aktobe 41%.
How many goals are expected in FK Atyrau vs FK Aktobe?
The model expects 2.34 goals (FK Atyrau 1.06 · FK Aktobe 1.28), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Atyrau vs FK Aktobe?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.