Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 16/08, 14:00
Prediction: Irtysh Pavlodar vs Tobol Kostanay
Team pages: Irtysh Pavlodar · Tobol Kostanay
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.3Total
Irtysh Pavlodar1.22
Tobol Kostanay1.08
1X2
Irtysh Pavlodar
Draw
Tobol Kostanay
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Irtysh Pavlodar
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Tobol Kostanay
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Irtysh Pavlodar
1–2–3
Tobol Kostanay
(6 last)
- Tobol Kostanay1-0Irtysh Pavlodar
- Irtysh Pavlodar0-0Tobol Kostanay
- Irtysh Pavlodar0-2Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay3-0Irtysh Pavlodar
- Tobol Kostanay1-2Irtysh Pavlodar
- Tobol Kostanay1-1Irtysh Pavlodar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Irtysh Pavlodar 1471 · Tobol Kostanay 1500
| Irtysh Pavlodar | Draw | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 31% | 31% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Tobol Kostanay: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Irtysh Pavlodar | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.2 | 2.4 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.3 | 4.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Irtysh Pavlodar 1–2–3 Tobol Kostanay
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 17/08/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 11/08/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 09/03/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 06/10/18 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 22/07/18 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 15 | 49 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 21 | 38 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 29 | 33 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 25 | 32 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 31 |
| 7 | FK Ulytau | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 21 | 28 |
| 8 | FK Kyzylzhar | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 30 | 23 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 23 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 29 | 22 |
| 11 | Tobol Kostanay | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 28 | 22 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 20 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | 19 |
| 15 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 28 | 17 |
| 16 | FC Altai Semey | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 32 | 17 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Irtysh Pavlodar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 12 | 9 | W |
| 25/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 27/05 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | D |
Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Partizan Belgrade UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 06/08 | Partizan Belgrade UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 02/08 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 30/07 | Panevezys UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 23/07 | Panevezys UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 18/07 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Irtysh Pavlodar vs Tobol Kostanay?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Irtysh Pavlodar win (39%). Probabilities: Irtysh Pavlodar 39%, draw 29%, Tobol Kostanay 32%.
How many goals are expected in Irtysh Pavlodar vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model expects 2.3 goals (Irtysh Pavlodar 1.22 · Tobol Kostanay 1.08), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Irtysh Pavlodar vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.