Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 16/08, 15:00

Prediction: FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FC Elimai Semey

Team pages: FK Kaspyi Aktau · FC Elimai Semey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

FK Kaspyi Aktau1.28

FC Elimai Semey1.48

1X2

32% 27% 41%

FK Kaspyi Aktau Draw FC Elimai Semey

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kaspyi Aktau 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWDWLD

FC Elimai Semey 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDLDDW

Head-to-head

FK Kaspyi Aktau 1–0 FC Elimai Semey (1 last)

FC Elimai Semey0-1FK Kaspyi Aktau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1514 · FC Elimai Semey 1486

	FK Kaspyi Aktau	Draw	FC Elimai Semey
Our model	32%	28%	41%
Market	32%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kaspyi Aktau	FC Elimai Semey
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.4	3.3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.26 ★
X	3.30 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.15 → 1.95▼	Pinn 1.98

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:39 +28’	2.80	3.30	2.15
23:26 +7’	2.75▼	3.40▲	2.15
01:18 +6’	3.10▲	3.50▲	1.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:30 +3’	3.26	3.42	1.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1–0–0 FC Elimai Semey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Elimai Semey	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Kaspyi Aktau

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	22	16	4	2	43	16	52
2	Kairat Almaty	21	14	6	1	42	15	48
3	FC Astana	20	11	5	4	33	21	38
4	FK Aktobe	22	10	5	7	32	26	35
5	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	21	9	6	6	30	29	33
6	FC Elimai Semey	20	8	7	5	29	24	31
7	FK Ulytau	22	7	7	8	18	24	28
8	FK Zhenys	21	6	8	7	21	24	26
9	FK Kaspyi Aktau	21	6	4	11	22	29	22
10	Tobol Kostanay	20	6	4	10	21	28	22
11	FK Kyzylzhar	21	6	4	11	23	31	22
12	FK Atyrau	20	3	11	6	15	19	20
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda	21	3	11	7	16	24	20
14	FC Altai Semey	22	4	7	11	20	33	19
15	Zhetysu	22	4	7	11	24	38	19
16	Irtysh Pavlodar	20	3	8	9	20	28	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kaspyi Aktau	FC Elimai Semey
Irtysh Pavlodar	2-3 L	3-1 W
FK Zhenys	3-2 W	0-0 D
Kaisar Kyzylorda	1-1 D	1-1 D
Ordabasy	3-2 W	1-3 L
FK Atyrau	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kaspyi Aktau (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Kaspyi Aktau

LLLWWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
01/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-3	1	9	L
26/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	3-2	4	10	W
18/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	9	D
11/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-2	2	3	W
05/07	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
27/06	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	1	W
20/06	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
14/06	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	1-2	6	6	L
28/05	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	6	L

FC Elimai Semey

LLWWDDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	3-1	6	8	W
02/08	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
19/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
16/07	Alashkert FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	1-1	8	6	D
09/07	Alashkert FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
04/07	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	12	8	W
27/06	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
21/06	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
14/06	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-3	8	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FC Elimai Semey?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Elimai Semey win (41%). Probabilities: FK Kaspyi Aktau 32%, draw 27%, FC Elimai Semey 41%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FC Elimai Semey?

The model expects 2.76 goals (FK Kaspyi Aktau 1.28 · FC Elimai Semey 1.48), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FC Elimai Semey?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.