Football · Norway Eliteserien · 25/10, 17:00
Prediction: Sarpsborg vs Aalesund
Team pages: Sarpsborg · Aalesund
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.67Total
Sarpsborg2.15
Aalesund1.52
1X2
Sarpsborg
Draw
Aalesund
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Sarpsborg
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Aalesund
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarpsborg
4–2
Aalesund
(6 last)
- Aalesund2-4Sarpsborg
- Aalesund3-2Sarpsborg
- Sarpsborg3-1Aalesund
- Aalesund1-3Sarpsborg
- Sarpsborg1-2Aalesund
- Aalesund0-1Sarpsborg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarpsborg 1511 · Aalesund 1521
| Sarpsborg | Draw | Aalesund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 22% | 26% |
| Market | 51% | 23% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sarpsborg: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarpsborg | Aalesund | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.8 | 2.1 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.7 | 2.9 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarpsborg 4–0–2 Aalesund
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/26 Norway Eliteserien | Aalesund | 2-4 HT 0-1 | Sarpsborg |
| 22/10/23 Norway Eliteserien | Aalesund | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Sarpsborg |
| 29/05/23 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Aalesund |
| 11/09/22 Norway Eliteserien | Aalesund | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Sarpsborg |
| 22/05/22 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Aalesund |
| 13/09/20 Norway Eliteserien | Aalesund | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sarpsborg |
Standings · Norway Eliteserien
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 23 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 58 | 20 | 56 |
| 2 | Viking FK | 23 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 59 | 22 | 56 |
| 3 | Molde | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 52 | 35 | 40 |
| 4 | Tromso | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 42 | 31 | 40 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 31 | 37 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 31 | 36 |
| 7 | SK Brann | 23 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 40 | 37 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 36 | 29 |
| 9 | KFUM | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 37 | 29 |
| 10 | Sarpsborg | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 34 | 28 |
| 11 | Valerenga | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 38 | 46 | 26 |
| 12 | Ham-Kam | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 33 | 48 | 26 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 30 | 24 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 39 | 51 | 24 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 47 | 19 |
| 16 | IK Start | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 25 | 54 | 16 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarpsborg | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|
| KFUM | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Valerenga | 2-2 D | 5-5 D |
| Tromso | 0-0 D | 2-6 L |
| Viking FK | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Molde | 3-3 D | 2-1 W |
| Ham-Kam | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarpsborg
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | Aalesund Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
1-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Aalesund
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 11/10 | Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 2-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/09 | IK Start Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
4-2 | 5-5 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 09/08 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-6 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 26/07 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarpsborg vs Aalesund?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarpsborg win (51%). Probabilities: Sarpsborg 51%, draw 23%, Aalesund 26%.
How many goals are expected in Sarpsborg vs Aalesund?
The model expects 3.67 goals (Sarpsborg 2.15 · Aalesund 1.52), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg vs Aalesund?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.