Football · Norway Eliteserien · 01/11, 17:00

Prediction: Sarpsborg vs Kristiansund BK

Team pages: Sarpsborg · Kristiansund BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Sarpsborg2.03

Kristiansund BK0.99

1X2

61% 22% 17%

Sarpsborg Draw Kristiansund BK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sarpsborg 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDDLWLW

Kristiansund BK 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Sarpsborg 1–2–3 Kristiansund BK (6 last)

Kristiansund BK0-0Sarpsborg
Kristiansund BK0-1Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg0-1Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK0-0Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg0-2Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK3-1Sarpsborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarpsborg 1536 · Kristiansund BK 1447

	Sarpsborg	Draw	Kristiansund BK
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	61%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarpsborg (rating 1536 vs 1447).
H2H favours Kristiansund BK: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarpsborg	Kristiansund BK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	1.3 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 7.3	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.33

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.50▼	Bet365 1.50
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.49
2	5.00 → 5.25▲	Pinn 6.25 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +12’	1.53	4.33	5.00
14:35 +8’	1.50▼	4.33	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:14 +368’	1.54	4.29	5.93
07:07 +6’	1.52▼	4.38▲	5.96▲
19:55 +28’	1.49▼	4.49▲	6.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarpsborg 1–2–3 Kristiansund BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Norway Eliteserien	Kristiansund BK	0-0 HT 0-0	Sarpsborg
25/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Kristiansund BK	0-1 HT 0-1	Sarpsborg
25/08/25 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	0-1 HT 0-1	Kristiansund BK
13/07/25 Norway Eliteserien	Kristiansund BK	0-0 HT 0-0	Sarpsborg
15/09/24 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	0-2 HT 0-0	Kristiansund BK
02/06/24 Norway Eliteserien	Kristiansund BK	3-1 HT 0-0	Sarpsborg

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	24	19	2	3	62	23	59
2	Bodo/Glimt	24	18	2	4	58	21	56
3	Molde	24	13	4	7	57	36	43
4	Rosenborg	24	12	4	8	46	31	40
5	Tromso	24	11	7	6	43	34	40
6	Lillestrom	24	12	3	9	35	33	39
7	Sarpsborg	24	8	7	9	30	35	31
8	KFUM	24	8	6	10	30	39	30
9	SK Brann	24	9	2	13	42	40	29
10	Valerenga	24	8	5	11	39	46	29
11	Fredrikstad	24	8	5	11	29	41	29
12	Ham-Kam	24	7	5	12	33	51	26
13	Sandefjord	24	6	6	12	22	31	24
14	Aalesund	24	5	9	10	40	53	24
15	Kristiansund BK	24	5	5	14	25	49	20
16	IK Start	24	5	4	15	26	54	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarpsborg	Kristiansund BK
Aalesund	2-1 W	1-4 L
Rosenborg	0-3 L	1-3 L
KFUM	1-3 L	2-2 D
Fredrikstad	1-1 D	0-1 L
Tromso	0-0 D	2-0 W
Viking FK	1-2 L	1-8 L
Molde	3-3 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Kristiansund BK (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarpsborg

DLLDDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-1	20	4	W
18/10	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-3	7	5	L
11/10	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-0	4-2	6	3	W
18/09	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-3	11	3	L
13/09	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
06/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
30/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
08/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
02/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-3	4	2	D

Kristiansund BK

LWLDWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
17/10	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
10/10	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-3	0	2	L
19/09	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
13/09	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	1-5	1-8	5	1	L
06/09	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
30/08	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
16/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
09/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
02/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarpsborg vs Kristiansund BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarpsborg win (61%). Probabilities: Sarpsborg 61%, draw 22%, Kristiansund BK 17%.

How many goals are expected in Sarpsborg vs Kristiansund BK?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Sarpsborg 2.03 · Kristiansund BK 0.99), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarpsborg vs Kristiansund BK?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.