Football · Norway Eliteserien · 01/11, 17:00

Prediction: IK Start vs Lillestrom

Team pages: IK Start · Lillestrom

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

IK Start1.53

Lillestrom1.75

1X2

33% 25% 42%

IK Start Draw Lillestrom

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

IK Start 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLLLW

Lillestrom 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLWWLDWW

Head-to-head

IK Start 2–4 Lillestrom (6 last)

Lillestrom3-1IK Start
Lillestrom3-0IK Start
IK Start0-3Lillestrom
Lillestrom4-3IK Start
IK Start2-1Lillestrom
IK Start3-0Lillestrom

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IK Start 1503 · Lillestrom 1519

	IK Start	Draw	Lillestrom
Our model	33%	25%	42%
Market	33%	25%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lillestrom: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IK Start	Lillestrom
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.9	1.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.70

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.71
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.38 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:39 +49’	2.80	3.70	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:16 +307’	2.79	3.71	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IK Start 2–0–4 Lillestrom

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	3-1 HT 2-0	IK Start
16/08/25 Norway Division 1	Lillestrom	3-0 HT 0-0	IK Start
26/07/25 Norway Division 1	IK Start	0-3 HT 0-1	Lillestrom
11/12/19 Norway Eliteserien Play-Offs	Lillestrom	4-3 HT 2-0	IK Start
07/12/19 Norway Eliteserien Play-Offs	IK Start	2-1 HT 0-1	Lillestrom
16/09/18 Norway Eliteserien	IK Start	3-0 HT 2-0	Lillestrom

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	24	19	2	3	62	23	59
2	Bodo/Glimt	24	18	2	4	58	21	56
3	Molde	24	13	4	7	57	36	43
4	Rosenborg	24	12	4	8	46	31	40
5	Tromso	24	11	7	6	43	34	40
6	Lillestrom	24	12	3	9	35	33	39
7	Sarpsborg	24	8	7	9	30	35	31
8	KFUM	24	8	6	10	30	39	30
9	SK Brann	24	9	2	13	42	40	29
10	Valerenga	24	8	5	11	39	46	29
11	Fredrikstad	24	8	5	11	29	41	29
12	Ham-Kam	24	7	5	12	33	51	26
13	Sandefjord	24	6	6	12	22	31	24
14	Aalesund	24	5	9	10	40	53	24
15	Kristiansund BK	24	5	5	14	25	49	20
16	IK Start	24	5	4	15	26	54	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IK Start	Lillestrom
Sandefjord	1-0 W	2-0 W
Molde	1-6 L	2-2 D
SK Brann	2-0 W	3-2 W
KFUM	4-1 W	1-1 D
Fredrikstad	0-1 L	1-4 L
Viking FK	0-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IK Start (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IK Start

WLLWLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
18/10	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-6	6	4	L
11/10	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-4	5	0	L
20/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-3	4	5	L
13/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
04/09	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
30/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	6	8	W
08/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	6	0	L
01/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-3	0-3	6	5	L
25/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	6	6	W

Lillestrom

LLDLWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	3	4	W
18/10	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
11/10	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-2	2-2	7	4	D
20/09	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
12/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
05/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	0	2	W
30/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-4	10	3	L
15/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
09/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	8	7	L
31/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IK Start vs Lillestrom?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lillestrom win (42%). Probabilities: IK Start 33%, draw 25%, Lillestrom 42%.

How many goals are expected in IK Start vs Lillestrom?

The model expects 3.28 goals (IK Start 1.53 · Lillestrom 1.75), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in IK Start vs Lillestrom?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.