Football · Norway Eliteserien · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga

Team pages: Bodo/Glimt · Valerenga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.46Total

Bodo/Glimt3.23

Valerenga1.23

1X2

79% 12% 9%

Bodo/Glimt Draw Valerenga

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Bodo/Glimt 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLWW

Valerenga 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDLDLW

Head-to-head

Bodo/Glimt 5–1 Valerenga (6 last)

Valerenga1-2Bodo/Glimt
Valerenga3-1Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt7-2Valerenga
Valerenga2-4Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt4-2Valerenga
Valerenga1-3Bodo/Glimt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bodo/Glimt 1585 · Valerenga 1508

	Bodo/Glimt	Draw	Valerenga
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	81%	11%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 4.46 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bodo/Glimt (rating 1585 vs 1508).
H2H favours Bodo/Glimt: 5-0-1.
High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bodo/Glimt	Valerenga
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.9	1.9 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.2	1 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 7.7	3 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.14

X8.50

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.98

2 (+2.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.90

Under 4.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	8.00 → 8.50▲	Pinn 9.72 ★
2	13.00 → 12.00▼	Pinn 13.54

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +10’	1.14	8.00	13.00
21:16 +2’	1.13▼	8.50▲	13.00
01:08 +3’	1.14▲	8.00▼	12.00▼
15:10 +10’	1.14	8.50▲	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:19 +3’	1.12	10.27	14.65
20:08 +11’	1.12▼	10.54▲	15.06▲
03:45 +26’	1.13▲	10.12▼	14.07▼
00:23 +48’	1.13▲	9.72▼	13.54▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bodo/Glimt 5–0–1 Valerenga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	1-2 HT 0-1	Bodo/Glimt
01/11/25 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	3-1 HT 2-0	Bodo/Glimt
26/07/25 Norway Eliteserien	Bodo/Glimt	7-2 HT 2-1	Valerenga
28/09/23 Norway Cup	Valerenga	2-4 HT 1-1	Bodo/Glimt
24/09/23 Norway Eliteserien	Bodo/Glimt	4-2 HT 2-1	Valerenga
04/06/23 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	1-3 HT 0-1	Bodo/Glimt

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	18	2	3	58	20	56
2	Viking FK	23	18	2	3	59	22	56
3	Molde	23	12	4	7	52	35	40
4	Tromso	23	11	7	5	42	31	40
5	Rosenborg	23	11	4	8	43	31	37
6	Lillestrom	23	11	3	9	32	31	36
7	SK Brann	23	9	2	12	40	37	29
8	Fredrikstad	23	8	5	10	28	36	29
9	KFUM	23	8	5	10	28	37	29
10	Sarpsborg	23	7	7	9	28	34	28
11	Valerenga	23	7	5	11	38	46	26
12	Ham-Kam	23	7	5	11	33	48	26
13	Sandefjord	23	6	6	11	22	30	24
14	Aalesund	23	5	9	9	39	51	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	5	4	14	23	47	19
16	IK Start	23	4	4	15	25	54	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bodo/Glimt	Valerenga
Ham-Kam	2-0 W	0-3 L
SK Brann	1-2 L	3-1 W
Fredrikstad	2-1 W	1-1 D
Lillestrom	4-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bodo/Glimt (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bodo/Glimt

WWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
10/10	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
20/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
14/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	10	3	W
04/09	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
30/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	4-2	12	2	W
08/08	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
31/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-0	4-0	10	2	W
26/07	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
22/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	10	1	W

Valerenga

WLLDLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
12/10	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	12	2	L
20/09	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
12/09	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
06/09	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-2	8	2	D
30/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	3-4	3-4	5	5	L
16/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-4	5-5	5	1	D
08/08	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	1	L
31/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
26/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	3-0	3-2	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bodo/Glimt win (79%). Probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 79%, draw 12%, Valerenga 9%.

How many goals are expected in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?

The model expects 4.46 goals (Bodo/Glimt 3.23 · Valerenga 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.