Football · Norway Eliteserien · 25/10, 17:00

Prediction: Lillestrom vs SK Brann

Team pages: Lillestrom · SK Brann

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Lillestrom1.64

SK Brann1.45

1X2

41% 25% 33%

Lillestrom Draw SK Brann

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lillestrom 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWWLDW

SK Brann 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWDLLWLL

Head-to-head

Lillestrom 1–1–4 SK Brann (6 last)

SK Brann1-2Lillestrom
SK Brann2-1Lillestrom
Lillestrom0-2SK Brann
Lillestrom0-2SK Brann
SK Brann2-2Lillestrom
SK Brann2-0Lillestrom

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lillestrom 1497 · SK Brann 1537

	Lillestrom	Draw	SK Brann
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Brann (rating 1497 vs 1537).
H2H favours SK Brann: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lillestrom	SK Brann
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.2	2.4 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.75

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.27
X	3.70 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.86 ★
2	2.70 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.86

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +2’	2.20	3.70	2.70
20:31 +2’	2.20	3.70	2.75▲
14:28 +3’	2.25▲	3.75▲	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:15 +306’	2.37	3.82	2.74
17:07 +16’	2.36▼	3.88▲	2.73▼
19:29 +5’	2.27▼	3.88	2.85▲
20:06 +26’	2.36▲	3.86▼	2.74▼
21:49 +34’	2.27▼	3.86	2.86▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lillestrom 1–1–4 SK Brann

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	1-2 HT 0-2	Lillestrom
09/11/24 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	2-1 HT 1-0	Lillestrom
12/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	0-2 HT 0-0	SK Brann
01/10/23 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	0-2 HT 0-1	SK Brann
11/06/23 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	2-2 HT 0-1	Lillestrom
20/05/23 Norway Cup	SK Brann	2-0 HT 1-0	Lillestrom

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	18	2	3	58	20	56
2	Viking FK	23	18	2	3	59	22	56
3	Molde	23	12	4	7	52	35	40
4	Tromso	23	11	7	5	42	31	40
5	Rosenborg	23	11	4	8	43	31	37
6	Lillestrom	23	11	3	9	32	31	36
7	SK Brann	23	9	2	12	40	37	29
8	Fredrikstad	23	8	5	10	28	36	29
9	KFUM	23	8	5	10	28	37	29
10	Sarpsborg	23	7	7	9	28	34	28
11	Valerenga	23	7	5	11	38	46	26
12	Ham-Kam	23	7	5	11	33	48	26
13	Sandefjord	23	6	6	11	22	30	24
14	Aalesund	23	5	9	9	39	51	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	5	4	14	23	47	19
16	IK Start	23	4	4	15	25	54	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lillestrom	SK Brann
Sandefjord	2-0 W	0-0 D
Molde	2-2 D	2-1 W
Viking FK	0-3 L	0-2 L
Valerenga	2-0 W	1-3 L
Rosenborg	0-2 L	3-2 W
Bodo/Glimt	0-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SK Brann (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lillestrom

LLLDLWWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
11/10	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-2	2-2	7	4	D
20/09	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
12/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
05/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	0	2	W
30/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-4	10	3	L
15/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
09/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	8	7	L
31/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
22/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	6	L

SK Brann

WLWWDLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-3	8	2	L
09/10	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	13	3	L
20/09	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
13/09	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
05/09	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	12	2	L
30/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
16/08	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	10	3	W
02/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-3	2-3	10	5	L
18/07	Molde Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lillestrom vs SK Brann?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lillestrom win (41%). Probabilities: Lillestrom 41%, draw 25%, SK Brann 33%.

How many goals are expected in Lillestrom vs SK Brann?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Lillestrom 1.64 · SK Brann 1.45), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs SK Brann?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.