Football · Norway Eliteserien · 25/10, 14:30

Prediction: Viking FK vs Tromso

Team pages: Viking FK · Tromso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Viking FK2.23

Tromso1.16

1X2

61% 21% 18%

Viking FK Draw Tromso

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Viking FK 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDWWWW

Tromso 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLLWDD

Head-to-head

Viking FK 3–3–0 Tromso (6 last)

Tromso1-1Viking FK
Tromso1-3Viking FK
Viking FK4-4Tromso
Tromso2-2Viking FK
Viking FK2-1Tromso
Viking FK1-0Tromso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Viking FK 1598 · Tromso 1522

	Viking FK	Draw	Tromso
Our model	61%	21%	18%
Market	61%	20%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viking FK (rating 1598 vs 1522).
H2H favours Viking FK: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Viking FK	Tromso
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.9	2.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 7.5	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 19:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.53▲	Bet365 1.53
X	4.50 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75
2	6.00 → 5.00▼	Pinn 5.51 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +4’	1.44	4.50	6.00
14:25 +3’	1.50▲	4.75▲	5.25▼
19:52 +2’	1.53▲	4.75	5.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:31 +228’	1.47	4.87	6.05
17:00 +21’	1.46▼	4.91▲	6.06▲
21:48 +33’	1.50▲	4.75▼	5.71▼
11:10 +9’	1.47▼	4.85▲	5.97▲
11:24 +69’	1.49▲	4.78▼	5.81▼
14:25 +4’	1.50▲	4.73▼	5.70▼
15:32 +2’	1.53▲	4.64▼	5.50▼
22:08 +48’	1.52▼	4.66▲	5.51▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Viking FK 3–3–0 Tromso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Tromso	1-1 HT 0-1	Viking FK
19/10/25 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	1-3 HT 1-1	Viking FK
27/04/25 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	4-4 HT 0-1	Tromso
01/09/24 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	2-2 HT 2-0	Viking FK
05/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	2-1 HT 0-0	Tromso
24/02/24 Europe Friendlies	Viking FK	1-0 HT 1-0	Tromso

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	18	2	3	58	20	56
2	Viking FK	23	18	2	3	59	22	56
3	Molde	23	12	4	7	52	35	40
4	Tromso	23	11	7	5	42	31	40
5	Rosenborg	23	11	4	8	43	31	37
6	Lillestrom	23	11	3	9	32	31	36
7	SK Brann	23	9	2	12	40	37	29
8	Fredrikstad	23	8	5	10	28	36	29
9	KFUM	23	8	5	10	28	37	29
10	Sarpsborg	23	7	7	9	28	34	28
11	Valerenga	23	7	5	11	38	46	26
12	Ham-Kam	23	7	5	11	33	48	26
13	Sandefjord	23	6	6	11	22	30	24
14	Aalesund	23	5	9	9	39	51	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	5	4	14	23	47	19
16	IK Start	23	4	4	15	25	54	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Viking FK	Tromso
Fredrikstad	3-2 W	1-1 D
Kristiansund BK	8-1 W	0-2 L
Aalesund	2-1 W	6-2 W
Rosenborg	1-2 L	3-5 L
Sarpsborg	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Viking FK (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Viking FK

DWWLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
09/10	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/09	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
13/09	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	5-1	8-1	7	1	W
04/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
30/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-1	14	5	W
14/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	6	0	L
08/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	11	5	W
01/08	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	3-0	3-0	5	5	W
26/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	10	7	D

Tromso

WWWLDLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
11/10	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
20/09	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
12/09	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-4	3-5	4	5	L
06/09	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
30/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
16/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	2	5	L
02/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	6-2	4	1	W
18/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	4-1	5	0	W
11/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	3-0	4-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Viking FK vs Tromso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Viking FK win (61%). Probabilities: Viking FK 61%, draw 21%, Tromso 18%.

How many goals are expected in Viking FK vs Tromso?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Viking FK 2.23 · Tromso 1.16), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Viking FK vs Tromso?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.