Football · Norway Eliteserien · 25/10, 17:00

Prediction: IK Start vs Sandefjord

Team pages: IK Start · Sandefjord

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

IK Start1.79

Sandefjord1.45

1X2

45% 25% 30%

IK Start Draw Sandefjord

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

IK Start 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLWLLL

Sandefjord 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDLWDL

Head-to-head

IK Start 1–2–3 Sandefjord (6 last)

Sandefjord3-0IK Start
Sandefjord3-2IK Start
IK Start1-0Sandefjord
IK Start1-1Sandefjord
IK Start0-1Sandefjord
Sandefjord2-2IK Start

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IK Start 1480 · Sandefjord 1515

	IK Start	Draw	Sandefjord
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sandefjord: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IK Start	Sandefjord
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.4	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	1.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.14
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.98 ★
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +4’	2.10	3.60	3.10
14:27 +4’	2.10	3.70▲	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:14 +308’	2.10	3.94	3.13
22:11 +12’	2.11▲	3.97▲	3.08▼
16:52 +33’	2.14▲	3.98▲	3.03▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IK Start 1–2–3 Sandefjord

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/09/26 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	3-0 HT 0-0	IK Start
08/03/26 Europe Friendlies	Sandefjord	3-2 HT 1-1	IK Start
05/03/23 Europe Friendlies	IK Start	1-0 HT 0-0	Sandefjord
02/05/21 Europe Friendlies	IK Start	1-1 HT 0-0	Sandefjord
24/10/20 Norway Eliteserien	IK Start	0-1 HT 0-0	Sandefjord
21/06/20 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	2-2 HT 1-2	IK Start

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	18	2	3	58	20	56
2	Viking FK	23	18	2	3	59	22	56
3	Molde	23	12	4	7	52	35	40
4	Tromso	23	11	7	5	42	31	40
5	Rosenborg	23	11	4	8	43	31	37
6	Lillestrom	23	11	3	9	32	31	36
7	SK Brann	23	9	2	12	40	37	29
8	Fredrikstad	23	8	5	10	28	36	29
9	KFUM	23	8	5	10	28	37	29
10	Sarpsborg	23	7	7	9	28	34	28
11	Valerenga	23	7	5	11	38	46	26
12	Ham-Kam	23	7	5	11	33	48	26
13	Sandefjord	23	6	6	11	22	30	24
14	Aalesund	23	5	9	9	39	51	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	5	4	14	23	47	19
16	IK Start	23	4	4	15	25	54	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IK Start	Sandefjord
SK Brann	2-0 W	0-0 D
KFUM	4-1 W	0-1 L
Fredrikstad	0-1 L	0-1 L
Viking FK	0-3 L	1-1 D
Rosenborg	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IK Start

LWLLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-6	6	4	L
11/10	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-4	5	0	L
20/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-3	4	5	L
13/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
04/09	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
30/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	6	8	W
08/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	6	0	L
01/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-3	0-3	6	5	L
25/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
18/07	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	5	4	L

Sandefjord

LLLWDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
10/10	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
20/09	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
14/09	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	2	3	L
04/09	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
30/08	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
16/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
07/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
01/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
26/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IK Start vs Sandefjord?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IK Start win (45%). Probabilities: IK Start 45%, draw 25%, Sandefjord 30%.

How many goals are expected in IK Start vs Sandefjord?

The model expects 3.25 goals (IK Start 1.79 · Sandefjord 1.45), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IK Start vs Sandefjord?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.